Wrong guess. Sigh.

[David Goldfarb]

Last Friday at the local club game (the one at the community center
in Houston, which gets a number of national champions as occasional
to frequent players.)

I was playing 6NT on these hands:

AT2
84
9
AKQT964

Q864
AKT
KT853
5

Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.

(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)

I ran my 11 winners, coming down to this ending:

AT2
--
--
--

Q4
--
K
--

So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q. If the SK is singleton, I should
lead a low spade to the ace. If the DA is singleton, *and* in the
same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.

If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.

I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.

[Travis Crump]

Post by David Goldfarb
Last Friday at the local club game (the one at the community center
in Houston, which gets a number of national champions as occasional
to frequent players.)
AT2
84
9
AKQT964
Q864
AKT
KT853
5
Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.
(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)
AT2
--
--
--
Q4
--
K
--
So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q. If the SK is singleton, I should
lead a low spade to the ace. If the DA is singleton, *and* in the
same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.
If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.
I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.

What happens if you just play the real simple line of playing for the DA
onside by leading a diamond before cashing hearts?

[Player]

Post by Travis Crump

Post by David Goldfarb
Last Friday at the local club game (the one at the community center
in Houston, which gets a number of national champions as occasional
to frequent players.)
AT2
84
9
AKQT964
Q864
AKT
KT853
5
Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.
(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)
AT2
--
--
--
Q4
--
K
--
So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q. If the SK is singleton, I should
lead a low spade to the ace. If the DA is singleton, *and* in the
same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.
If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.
I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.

What happens if you just play the real simple line of playing for the DA
onside by leading a diamond before cashing hearts?

Playing the D first is a good bet, though it does tend to put your eggs in one basket. Who knows though. I also would have played the SQ. Smothering the stiff knave is a sexy play.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by David Goldfarb
Last Friday at the local club game (the one at the community center
in Houston, which gets a number of national champions as occasional
to frequent players.)
AT2
84
9
AKQT964
Q864
AKT
KT853
5
Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.
(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)

:)

Post by David Goldfarb
AT2
--
--
--
Q4
--
K
--

Why wasn't it a better chance to just keep dKx and lead toward it?

Post by David Goldfarb
So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q.

The helps only against half of the singleton J's.

Post by David Goldfarb
If the SK is singleton, I should lead a low spade to the ace.

Better - that works against singleton K on either side.

Post by David Goldfarb
If the DA is singleton, *and* in the same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.

Assuming the hand came down to Kx -- A -- and not K -- Ax --, but trick 1 suggests this is a weak pair and would docily stiff the diamond. So this seems best. It's 50% that the sK is in the same hand as the dA.

Post by David Goldfarb
If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.
I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.

[Lorne Anderson]

Post by David Goldfarb
Last Friday at the local club game (the one at the community center
in Houston, which gets a number of national champions as occasional
to frequent players.)
AT2
84
9
AKQT964
Q864
AKT
KT853
5
Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.
(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)
AT2
--
--
--
Q4
--
K
--
So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q. If the SK is singleton, I should
lead a low spade to the ace. If the DA is singleton, *and* in the
same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.
If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.
I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.

You should tell us how many spades and diamonds are out at this point
and which spades were discarded by which opponent - this is the only
thing you are interested in from trick 1 onwards if you play this line
so if you did not keep count you should have just played a diamond to
the K earlier.

If you do know then the answer affects the odds enormously and I think
the odds are better than the 50% diamond play as whenever the diamond is
right you can make the contract (unless LHO keeps KJ of S and a D) and
when it is wrong there are lots of layouts when you can also make.

[Dave Flower]

Post by David Goldfarb
Last Friday at the local club game (the one at the community center
in Houston, which gets a number of national champions as occasional
to frequent players.)
AT2
84
9
AKQT964
Q864
AKT
KT853
5
Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.
(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)
AT2
--
--
--
Q4
--
K
--
So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q. If the SK is singleton, I should
lead a low spade to the ace. If the DA is singleton, *and* in the
same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.
If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.
I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.
--
David Goldfarb |"'The truth will set you free.'

I'm with a club to dummy and a diamond to the king. This makes:
1) When the DA is on the right
2) When LHO ducks
3) When LHO wins, and fails to continue diamonds there are squeeze chances.

Dave Flower

[jogs]

On Monday, March 27, 2017 at 9:15:05 PM UTC-7,

Post by David Goldfarb
AT2
84
9
AKQT964
Q864
AKT
KT853
5
Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.
(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)
AT2
--
--
--
Q4
--
K
--
So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q. If the SK is singleton, I should
lead a low spade to the ace. If the DA is singleton, *and* in the
same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.
If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.
I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.

Why would either opponent pitch down to a singleton spade honor?
Playing the DK is clear-cut. Were you counting diamonds?
Are there only one remaining? Is it 2 or 3.
DK then you hope the player with the DA also has the SK.

[f***@googlemail.com]

Post by David Goldfarb
Last Friday at the local club game (the one at the community center
in Houston, which gets a number of national champions as occasional
to frequent players.)
AT2
84
9
AKQT964
Q864
AKT
KT853
5
Our bidding, with opponents silent, was 1D-2C; 2N-6N. I got the helpful
lead of a low heart around to my ten.
(They're not *all* champions, I'll grant you.)
AT2
--
--
--
Q4
--
K
--
So the question now is what singleton honor to play for. If the SJ
is singleton, I should lead the Q. If the SK is singleton, I should
lead a low spade to the ace. If the DA is singleton, *and* in the
same hand as the SK, then I should exit my diamond.
If there was any clue in the discards, I wasn't good enough to read it.
I played the SQ. DK would have worked. Arguably I should play the
DK because if it works it's the most stylish.
--
David Goldfarb |"'The truth will set you free.'

The problem with this line is that it needs the hand with the ace of diamonds to have a spade honour, and for you to guess which one. If they don't have a spade honour it won't be very difficult for them to come down to a small singleton spade and two diamonds.

If RHO has the DA and both spade honours you probably can't go wrong.
If LHO has the DAQ and both spade honours who knows what they will do

So you are making when
- LHO has the DA and the SK and you read what to do
- LHO has the DA, SK and SJ and you read what to do
- RHO has the DA and the SK and you read what to do
- RHO has the DA and the SJ and the read what to do
- RHO has the DA, SK, SJ and you read what to do

Here are the relevant holdings:
LHO has DA, SK
LHO has DA, SK, SJ

RHO has DA, SK
RHO has DA, SK, SJ
RHO has DA, SJ

If LHO has DA, SJ not SK you are always going off

The very simple line of a diamond to the king makes on 3 of these

Your complex line makes on all five if you can read it. So your chance of reading the end position has to be better than 60% for it to be right to take this line.

I struggle to see what information you are going to glean from the discards to get this right, other than possible someone telling you they have the ace of diamonds.