Post by Fred.If advancer always overcalls 1NT given a good hand with a
trump stack, then I agree that a good IMP double of 2S
is unlikely.
If, on the other hand, advancer passes such hands expecting
4th hand to protect, then advancer can have a 24K double of
2S which may well win the match.
In the example given, opener had rebid 2S over 1S despite hearing no
help from partner. That implies at least 6 spades. Even if it somehow
lost every trick, that goes for 2300 (not "24K"), and given how
vanishingly unlikely a 6610 distribution round the table in spades is,
it's going to make at least one trick for trump length, so 2000 at
worst even if the advancer somehow manages to drop or finesse every
high trump in declarer's hand.
In practice, the maximum realistic penalty is rather smaller. For
example, down five would give a score of 1400, comparable to making a
vulnerable slam, which seems like a good deal; but in order for the
contract to go down five, the defence have to make ten tricks, i.e. they
have to be able to make game in the opener's six-card suit. And if they
can make game there, they can probably make much more in other suits,
where the opener's long suit can be ruffed rather than dropped and
finessed individually.
I'd put the largest likely penalty from this bidding sequence in the
1100 or even 800 range. That's still a lot, but it's so rare to get
penalties that large that it's probably not worth the memory load on
your system, let alone the other plausible meanings of the bid. (This is
especially bearing in mind that as soon as the vulnerability is anything
other than white vs. red, you'd prefer to make a game your way than for
the opponents to be doubled down two.) I've seen large penalties at the
two-level before, but it normally happens when the declaring side are
balanced-ish with a misfit, not when one of them has a single-suiter.
(Incidentally, I once tried passing an opening bid with 17 points and
trump length, only to discover that my partner also had trump length
and the opening bid got passed out; this implies to me that trap
passes have to be fairly limited. This is presumably more likely to
happen in the land of four-card majors, but there has to be some sort
of maximum strength where you're willing to risk the hand being passed
out. It hardly makes sense to play (1M), Pass, (Pass) as forcing!)
--
ais523