Action?

West North East South

1C ??

North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x

Best action?

Ronald

2017-01-23 10:21:21 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Pass, what else?

--
Ronald

Co Wiersma

2017-01-23 11:01:22 UTC

Post by Ronald

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Pass, what else?

1D
Its either pass or 1D

Co Wiersma

David Goldfarb

2017-01-23 10:18:22 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x

When I have no sensible bid to make, I like to pass.

--
David Goldfarb |
***@gmail.com | "It's flabby and delicious."
***@ocf.berkeley.edu |

Robin Johnson

2017-01-23 11:11:30 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Pass: 1D doesn't appeal to me
(four card overcalls very rarely do)
and X is execrable.

Player

2017-01-23 12:27:53 UTC

1D. What else?

KWSchneider

2017-01-23 20:46:13 UTC

Post by Player
1D. What else?

After
(1C) 1D (1H) P;
(2H) X (P) ??;
what do you expect partner to do with 44 in the pointed suits and 5HCP (he couldn't double the first time)?
I'd pass with this hand, then the spade suit is easier to find. Lead direction is overblown - as you yourself have maintained.

Kurt

--
Posted by Mimo Usenet Browser v0.2.5
http://www.mimousenet.com/mimo/post

Player

2017-01-24 00:06:21 UTC

Post by KWSchneider

Post by Player
1D. What else?

I am not overcalling for a D lead. I am overcalling because I have a decent hand and want to get into the bidding.

Berti Rupsli

2017-01-23 13:17:37 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

sorry, but pass, what else?
let them run into trouble, why do it yourself with a 1D 4card overcall and "nothing" in the MM? A 1D overcall will not prevent them from finding their possible M-fit at all. You only reveal your strength to oppts. But if your pd has "something" you will get a second chance...

Berti

Berti Rupsli

2017-01-23 13:37:09 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

On second thought after RHO's (regular) 1C opening there is some chance your pd will be on lead, and a D lead could be helpful. But is this reason sufficient with AQJx for such a 1D overcall?

Berti

jogs

2017-01-23 14:56:36 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

VUL: pass.

Non-vul: 1D.

Adam Lea

2017-01-23 17:47:32 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

If you are the average club lol and really, really, really can't stand
defending, then overcall 1D.

I would pass, and if it goes 1C-1H-2H by opps then consider a takeout double

Lorne Anderson

2017-01-23 23:50:42 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Pass for me.

Douglas Newlands

2017-01-24 00:16:06 UTC

Post by Lorne Anderson

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Pass for me.

and me.

Fred.

2017-01-24 16:02:43 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

This hand is a balanced minimum, though a nice
one. At IMP scoring, against a sound style a
pass is in order, but 1D would be my call against
a light style since the downside of getting in
with the balanced minimum is offset by a better
prospect of game. At match points, where partner
is more likely to compete aggressively for a part
score, I'm likely to pass unless I think our
opponents really hate defending.

Fred.

p***@infi.net

2017-01-26 04:21:36 UTC

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Vulnerability, form of scoring, style of advancing an overcall, partner, and opponents are all considerations. With most partners I play new suit forcing, so overcalling 1D will usually uncover a spade fit, since we make 4-card advances just like responses. I am strongly inclined to overcall 1D here but under specific conditions might pass.

Sandy Barnes

2017-01-27 01:18:01 UTC

Post by p***@infi.net

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

This was presented to me as a problem, and I forwarded it to the group because I thought that there were some considerations which make your action questionable, whatever you decide. Passing over 1C may give partner the wrong opinion of your hand type if you later wish to show values. in addition, passing may also make it too difficult for partner to want to compete if your side owns a part score. But, then again, bidding your 4 card diamond suit is also not a standout action. As I resolved the question, I considered that I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance with enough values but a distribution flaw. We might end up in 1NT if I call 1D, and we may end up defending 1NT on a heart lead if I pass 1C. Put me in the 1D camp, however flawed that call may be.

Barry Margolin

2017-01-27 20:30:31 UTC

Post by Sandy Barnes

Post by p***@infi.net

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Vulnerability, form of scoring, style of advancing an overcall, partner,
and opponents are all considerations. With most partners I play new suit
forcing, so overcalling 1D will usually uncover a spade fit, since we make
4-card advances just like responses. I am strongly inclined to overcall 1D
here but under specific conditions might pass.

This was presented to me as a problem, and I forwarded it to the group
because I thought that there were some considerations which make your action
questionable, whatever you decide.

Lots of people think that if they have opening strength they have to
show it, even if they don't really have an appropriate bid. At the club
this week, my partner opened 1C, and RHO doubled with 14 HCP and 4=1=4=4
shape. I never got around to asking her what she planned to do if her
partner bid hearts (it didn't come up, because I bid hearts first). I
suspect she hadn't really thought that far ahead.

But this is the whole reason why balancing actions can be made with
lighter hands. The problem she has is that their partnership doesn't
play balancing 1NT as lighter than a direct 1NT overcall, so her partner
might have been stuck if she didn't bid.

--
Barry Margolin
Arlington, MA

Player

2017-01-28 06:06:23 UTC

Post by Barry Margolin

Post by Sandy Barnes

Post by p***@infi.net

Post by s***@gmail.com
West North East South
1C ??
North player held Kxxx xx AQJx K9x
Best action?

Vulnerability, form of scoring, style of advancing an overcall, partner,
and opponents are all considerations. With most partners I play new suit
forcing, so overcalling 1D will usually uncover a spade fit, since we make
4-card advances just like responses. I am strongly inclined to overcall 1D
here but under specific conditions might pass.

This was presented to me as a problem, and I forwarded it to the group
because I thought that there were some considerations which make your action
questionable, whatever you decide.

Lots of people think that if they have opening strength they have to
show it, even if they don't really have an appropriate bid. At the club
this week, my partner opened 1C, and RHO doubled with 14 HCP and 4=1=4=4
shape. I never got around to asking her what she planned to do if her
partner bid hearts (it didn't come up, because I bid hearts first). I
suspect she hadn't really thought that far ahead.
But this is the whole reason why balancing actions can be made with
lighter hands. The problem she has is that their partnership doesn't
play balancing 1NT as lighter than a direct 1NT overcall, so her partner
might have been stuck if she didn't bid.
--
Barry Margolin
Arlington, MA

Barry, this situation is totally different to the op.
Another interesting thing to bear in mind is what TODAY constitutes a x of 1C? Certainly not the hand you show, but many leading US experts will now x 1C on say a 3433 shape and around 13 or so.

Berti Rupsli

2017-01-29 13:29:41 UTC

Post by Sandy Barnes
As I resolved the question, I considered that I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance with enough values but a distribution flaw.

This is an interesting discussion. And I feel it goes rather deep into the basic logic of (modern) bidding; and about the older vs a (possibly) modern style.

Here, West opened 1C (let's assume just 13 HCP; and thus some chances for a balanced holding, possibly with both MM), and in the opinion of some knowledgable posters here North "should" overcall 1D (or even DBL) with 13 HCP, but with no "accentuated" holding - so it's just 13 HCP (and a weak 4-2 holding in MM). This leaves 14 HCP for the two others at the table. Yes, I know HCP is not everything, but it still seems some guidance, especially in situations with no "accentuated" holdings...

So, WHAT would North expect to happen - a miracle, like South holding 14 HCP, or an unexpected special length in the MM? According to probabilities he should rather expect some 7 HCP, and NO special holding in MM. Thus, both sides would fight for the part score with about 20 HCP, and West would be in a (much?) better starting position concerning the MMs, or also in "his" partner's expectations for the bidding. I wonder why North would risk this "fight" (in the GIVEN situation with a balanced 4-2-4-3) with a FIRST(!) round bid (not knowing East's reaction yet), given that West already opened this "fight". For me, expectations for North/South to lose the competition seem higher than for West/East. Of course it's unclear who would finally win it, but why not trying to defend competently? An advance sac does not make any sense here, and there is still a chance to bid later (if West/East do not bid appropriately). And if North passed, and East doesn't bid, and South "cannot" balance... so, what could North have lost? But if East passes and South bids strongly...

So, what actually North/South could lose "realistically" (in this specific 1st-round bidding situation for North), versus the high chance to lose an own part score (apart from a theoretical "win" of an undoubled(!?) -1 in D vs their makeable part-score in MM)? Is it really just for the "fight" per se, do you "ignore" the probabilities? Or is it a fear to be seen as a wimp, or is it so difficult to pass...? Or is it rather the "hope" that South can provide the necessary ingredients for a successful (part) score?

Or as Sandy mentioned: "...I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance... ". Is "little to fear by bidding" seen as a superior idea as compared to the fact of (possibly) misleading partner with a courageous 1st-round overcall - (and I do not mean that ironic at all!).

What would be the "calculatory consideration" (in chances) for the 1D bid (here) as opposed to a 1st-round pass by North?

Thanks,
Berti

judyorcarl@verizon.net

2017-01-29 15:26:39 UTC

This is an interesting discussion. And I feel it goes rather deep into the basic logic of (modern) bidding; and about the older vs a (possibly) modern style.
Here, West opened 1C (let's assume just 13 HCP; and thus some chances for a balanced holding, possibly with both MM), and in the opinion of some knowledgable posters here North "should" overcall 1D (or even DBL) with 13 HCP, but with no "accentuated" holding - so it's just 13 HCP (and a weak 4-2 holding in MM). This leaves 14 HCP for the two others at the table. Yes, I know HCP is not everything, but it still seems some guidance, especially in situations with no "accentuated" holdings...
So, WHAT would North expect to happen - a miracle, like South holding 14 HCP, or an unexpected special length in the MM? According to probabilities he should rather expect some 7 HCP, and NO special holding in MM. Thus, both sides would fight for the part score with about 20 HCP, and West would be in a (much?) better starting position concerning the MMs, or also in "his" partner's expectations for the bidding. I wonder why North would risk this "fight" (in the GIVEN situation with a balanced 4-2-4-3) with a FIRST(!) round bid (not knowing East's reaction yet), given that West already opened this "fight". For me, expectations for North/South to lose the competition seem higher than for West/East. Of course it's unclear who would finally win it, but why not trying to defend competently? An advance sac does not make any sense here, and there is still a chance to bid later (if West/East do not bid appropriately). And if North passed, and East doesn't bid, and South "cannot" balance... so, what could North have lost? But if East passes and South bids strongly...
So, what actually North/South could lose "realistically" (in this specific 1st-round bidding situation for North), versus the high chance to lose an own part score (apart from a theoretical "win" of an undoubled(!?) -1 in D vs their makeable part-score in MM)? Is it really just for the "fight" per se, do you "ignore" the probabilities? Or is it a fear to be seen as a wimp, or is it so difficult to pass...? Or is it rather the "hope" that South can provide the necessary ingredients for a successful (part) score?
Or as Sandy mentioned: "...I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance... ". Is "little to fear by bidding" seen as a superior idea as compared to the fact of (possibly) misleading partner with a courageous 1st-round overcall - (and I do not mean that ironic at all!).
What would be the "calculatory consideration" (in chances) for the 1D bid (here) as opposed to a 1st-round pass by North?
Thanks,
Berti

I believe your repeated reference to "1st round" is misdirected. A pass now with a later bid will invite -800 for no benefit. Only the opponents need to know you are not very strong. Passing now and forever will make partner misguess the defense, placing some of your honors with declarer.

Carl

Berti Rupsli

2017-01-30 11:10:54 UTC

This is an interesting discussion. And I feel it goes rather deep into the basic logic of (modern) bidding; and about the older vs a (possibly) modern style.
Here, West opened 1C (let's assume just 13 HCP; and thus some chances for a balanced holding, possibly with both MM), and in the opinion of some knowledgable posters here North "should" overcall 1D (or even DBL) with 13 HCP, but with no "accentuated" holding - so it's just 13 HCP (and a weak 4-2 holding in MM). This leaves 14 HCP for the two others at the table. Yes, I know HCP is not everything, but it still seems some guidance, especially in situations with no "accentuated" holdings...
So, WHAT would North expect to happen - a miracle, like South holding 14 HCP, or an unexpected special length in the MM? According to probabilities he should rather expect some 7 HCP, and NO special holding in MM. Thus, both sides would fight for the part score with about 20 HCP, and West would be in a (much?) better starting position concerning the MMs, or also in "his" partner's expectations for the bidding. I wonder why North would risk this "fight" (in the GIVEN situation with a balanced 4-2-4-3) with a FIRST(!) round bid (not knowing East's reaction yet), given that West already opened this "fight". For me, expectations for North/South to lose the competition seem higher than for West/East. Of course it's unclear who would finally win it, but why not trying to defend competently? An advance sac does not make any sense here, and there is still a chance to bid later (if West/East do not bid appropriately). And if North passed, and East doesn't bid, and South "cannot" balance... so, what could North have lost? But if East passes and South bids strongly...
So, what actually North/South could lose "realistically" (in this specific 1st-round bidding situation for North), versus the high chance to lose an own part score (apart from a theoretical "win" of an undoubled(!?) -1 in D vs their makeable part-score in MM)? Is it really just for the "fight" per se, do you "ignore" the probabilities? Or is it a fear to be seen as a wimp, or is it so difficult to pass...? Or is it rather the "hope" that South can provide the necessary ingredients for a successful (part) score?
Or as Sandy mentioned: "...I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance... ". Is "little to fear by bidding" seen as a superior idea as compared to the fact of (possibly) misleading partner with a courageous 1st-round overcall - (and I do not mean that ironic at all!).
What would be the "calculatory consideration" (in chances) for the 1D bid (here) as opposed to a 1st-round pass by North?
Thanks,
Berti

Carl, thanks for your reaction. I feel my repeated reference to "1st round" was misunderstood. I'm of the opinion that per expectation (see above) "we" will regularly not be in the position to outbid the oppts successfully here, that's why I would already pass in 1st round (here!), and not bid later on. Except when pd makes a "promising" bid... And the 1D bid would not establish any hurdles for oppts' bidding at all (as compared to eg a 1S bid). Why not letting "them" be surprised...

Of course, one could imagine a few partnership holdings when my 1D bid would be helpful for our side. But I'd rather go with the probabilities here and prefer to pass, and wait to see whether something "unexpected" should happen. Yes, my 1D bid would definitely be helping pd placing values (especially in D) for the defence and in deciding on the lead. But so would it ALSO help oppts placing values! It ALSO could mislead pd as far as lengths of suits are concerned... Lots of cons in my oppinion!

Berti

Douglas Newlands

2017-01-30 11:36:22 UTC

This is an interesting discussion. And I feel it goes rather deep into the basic logic of (modern) bidding; and about the older vs a (possibly) modern style.
Here, West opened 1C (let's assume just 13 HCP; and thus some chances for a balanced holding, possibly with both MM), and in the opinion of some knowledgable posters here North "should" overcall 1D (or even DBL) with 13 HCP, but with no "accentuated" holding - so it's just 13 HCP (and a weak 4-2 holding in MM). This leaves 14 HCP for the two others at the table. Yes, I know HCP is not everything, but it still seems some guidance, especially in situations with no "accentuated" holdings...
So, WHAT would North expect to happen - a miracle, like South holding 14 HCP, or an unexpected special length in the MM? According to probabilities he should rather expect some 7 HCP, and NO special holding in MM. Thus, both sides would fight for the part score with about 20 HCP, and West would be in a (much?) better starting position concerning the MMs, or also in "his" partner's expectations for the bidding. I wonder why North would risk this "fight" (in the GIVEN situation with a balanced 4-2-4-3) with a FIRST(!) round bid (not knowing East's reaction yet), given that West already opened this "fight". For me, expectations for North/South to lose the competition seem higher than for West/East. Of course it's unclear who would finally win it, but why not trying to defend competently? An advance sac does not make any sense here, and there is still a chance to bid later (if West/East do not bid appropriately). And if North passed, and East doesn't bid, and South "cannot" balance... so, what could North have lost? But if East passes and South bids strongly...
So, what actually North/South could lose "realistically" (in this specific 1st-round bidding situation for North), versus the high chance to lose an own part score (apart from a theoretical "win" of an undoubled(!?) -1 in D vs their makeable part-score in MM)? Is it really just for the "fight" per se, do you "ignore" the probabilities? Or is it a fear to be seen as a wimp, or is it so difficult to pass...? Or is it rather the "hope" that South can provide the necessary ingredients for a successful (part) score?
Or as Sandy mentioned: "...I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance... ". Is "little to fear by bidding" seen as a superior idea as compared to the fact of (possibly) misleading partner with a courageous 1st-round overcall - (and I do not mean that ironic at all!).
What would be the "calculatory consideration" (in chances) for the 1D bid (here) as opposed to a 1st-round pass by North?
Thanks,
Berti

I believe your repeated reference to "1st round" is misdirected.
A pass now with a later bid will invite -800 for no benefit.

This is balderdash.
Coming in when the oppo are unlimited needs safety of a good suit
and 1Dx can easily go 4 off. The 1D overcall is too exposed to be sensible.
Once their auction has finished is the time is the time to consider
balancing and coming into the auction late.
Perhaps you have heard of this? Mike Lawrence has written an excellent
book on it.

The whole point is that manic overcallers relieve their partners of any
need for balancing. The downside is that they get pinged for a big
number every so often.
Sensible overcallers avoid this danger but do need partner

Berti Rupsli

2017-01-30 12:34:22 UTC

...

Post by ***@verizon.net
I believe your repeated reference to "1st round" is misdirected.
A pass now with a later bid will invite -800 for no benefit.

This is balderdash.
Coming in when the oppo are unlimited needs safety of a good suit
and 1Dx can easily go 4 off. The 1D overcall is too exposed to be sensible.
Once their auction has finished is the time is the time to consider
balancing and coming into the auction late.
Perhaps you have heard of this? Mike Lawrence has written an excellent
book on it.
The whole point is that manic overcallers relieve their partners of any
need for balancing. The downside is that they get pinged for a big
number every so often.
Sensible overcallers avoid this danger but do need partner to balance on
some hands.
doug

Doug: Thanks for your concise reply. This one "adjusts" my understanding to its original orientation.

Berti

Player

2017-01-31 00:16:11 UTC

This is an interesting discussion. And I feel it goes rather deep into the basic logic of (modern) bidding; and about the older vs a (possibly) modern style.
Here, West opened 1C (let's assume just 13 HCP; and thus some chances for a balanced holding, possibly with both MM), and in the opinion of some knowledgable posters here North "should" overcall 1D (or even DBL) with 13 HCP, but with no "accentuated" holding - so it's just 13 HCP (and a weak 4-2 holding in MM). This leaves 14 HCP for the two others at the table. Yes, I know HCP is not everything, but it still seems some guidance, especially in situations with no "accentuated" holdings...
So, WHAT would North expect to happen - a miracle, like South holding 14 HCP, or an unexpected special length in the MM? According to probabilities he should rather expect some 7 HCP, and NO special holding in MM. Thus, both sides would fight for the part score with about 20 HCP, and West would be in a (much?) better starting position concerning the MMs, or also in "his" partner's expectations for the bidding. I wonder why North would risk this "fight" (in the GIVEN situation with a balanced 4-2-4-3) with a FIRST(!) round bid (not knowing East's reaction yet), given that West already opened this "fight". For me, expectations for North/South to lose the competition seem higher than for West/East. Of course it's unclear who would finally win it, but why not trying to defend competently? An advance sac does not make any sense here, and there is still a chance to bid later (if West/East do not bid appropriately). And if North passed, and East doesn't bid, and South "cannot" balance... so, what could North have lost? But if East passes and South bids strongly...
So, what actually North/South could lose "realistically" (in this specific 1st-round bidding situation for North), versus the high chance to lose an own part score (apart from a theoretical "win" of an undoubled(!?) -1 in D vs their makeable part-score in MM)? Is it really just for the "fight" per se, do you "ignore" the probabilities? Or is it a fear to be seen as a wimp, or is it so difficult to pass...? Or is it rather the "hope" that South can provide the necessary ingredients for a successful (part) score?
Or as Sandy mentioned: "...I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance... ". Is "little to fear by bidding" seen as a superior idea as compared to the fact of (possibly) misleading partner with a courageous 1st-round overcall - (and I do not mean that ironic at all!).
What would be the "calculatory consideration" (in chances) for the 1D bid (here) as opposed to a 1st-round pass by North?
Thanks,
Berti

I believe your repeated reference to "1st round" is misdirected.
A pass now with a later bid will invite -800 for no benefit.

This is balderdash.
Coming in when the oppo are unlimited needs safety of a good suit
and 1Dx can easily go 4 off. The 1D overcall is too exposed to be sensible.
Once their auction has finished is the time is the time to consider
balancing and coming into the auction late.
Perhaps you have heard of this? Mike Lawrence has written an excellent
book on it.
The whole point is that manic overcallers relieve their partners of any
need for balancing. The downside is that they get pinged for a big
number every so often.
Sensible overcallers avoid this danger but do need partner to balance on
some hands.
doug

You seriously think 1D is going to get "pinged" when you hold AQJx. Come off the grass, Douggie.

Fred.

2017-01-31 16:32:34 UTC

This is an interesting discussion. And I feel it goes rather deep into the basic logic of (modern) bidding; and about the older vs a (possibly) modern style.
Here, West opened 1C (let's assume just 13 HCP; and thus some chances for a balanced holding, possibly with both MM), and in the opinion of some knowledgable posters here North "should" overcall 1D (or even DBL) with 13 HCP, but with no "accentuated" holding - so it's just 13 HCP (and a weak 4-2 holding in MM). This leaves 14 HCP for the two others at the table. Yes, I know HCP is not everything, but it still seems some guidance, especially in situations with no "accentuated" holdings...
So, WHAT would North expect to happen - a miracle, like South holding 14 HCP, or an unexpected special length in the MM? According to probabilities he should rather expect some 7 HCP, and NO special holding in MM. Thus, both sides would fight for the part score with about 20 HCP, and West would be in a (much?) better starting position concerning the MMs, or also in "his" partner's expectations for the bidding. I wonder why North would risk this "fight" (in the GIVEN situation with a balanced 4-2-4-3) with a FIRST(!) round bid (not knowing East's reaction yet), given that West already opened this "fight". For me, expectations for North/South to lose the competition seem higher than for West/East. Of course it's unclear who would finally win it, but why not trying to defend competently? An advance sac does not make any sense here, and there is still a chance to bid later (if West/East do not bid appropriately). And if North passed, and East doesn't bid, and South "cannot" balance... so, what could North have lost? But if East passes and South bids strongly...
So, what actually North/South could lose "realistically" (in this specific 1st-round bidding situation for North), versus the high chance to lose an own part score (apart from a theoretical "win" of an undoubled(!?) -1 in D vs their makeable part-score in MM)? Is it really just for the "fight" per se, do you "ignore" the probabilities? Or is it a fear to be seen as a wimp, or is it so difficult to pass...? Or is it rather the "hope" that South can provide the necessary ingredients for a successful (part) score?
Or as Sandy mentioned: "...I had values, a solid lead to suggest, and little to fear by bidding, and that passing may place partner in the hot seat to balance... ". Is "little to fear by bidding" seen as a superior idea as compared to the fact of (possibly) misleading partner with a courageous 1st-round overcall - (and I do not mean that ironic at all!).
What would be the "calculatory consideration" (in chances) for the 1D bid (here) as opposed to a 1st-round pass by North?
Thanks,
Berti

I believe your repeated reference to "1st round" is misdirected.
A pass now with a later bid will invite -800 for no benefit.

This is balderdash.
Coming in when the oppo are unlimited needs safety of a good suit
and 1Dx can easily go 4 off. The 1D overcall is too exposed to be sensible.
Once their auction has finished is the time is the time to consider
balancing and coming into the auction late.
Perhaps you have heard of this? Mike Lawrence has written an excellent
book on it.
The whole point is that manic overcallers relieve their partners of any
need for balancing. The downside is that they get pinged for a big
number every so often.
Sensible overcallers avoid this danger but do need partner to balance on
some hands.
doug

Like Ron, I have little fear of having to play 1DX. My real fear is
that partner will make an unprofitable preemptive raise to 3,4, or 5
diamonds.

Fred.

jogs

2017-01-31 19:15:07 UTC

Post by Fred.
Like Ron, I have little fear of having to play 1DX. My real fear is
that partner will make an unprofitable preemptive raise to 3,4, or 5
diamonds.
Fred.

That's why I'm only willing to bid 1D non-vul.

Player

2017-02-01 00:23:49 UTC

Post by Fred.