Question relating to Pianola statistic

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

[Lorne]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

I think you will find the best players declare well over 50% of the
hands playing MP's. Defending 67% suggests you are not competing enough.

[Travis Crump]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

How are your overall results? Obviously your MPs over that sample size
will be more meaningful than other stats. The general rule generally is
that better players will play more hands, but there is no reason this
has to be true. At the least I'd count hands you defend doubled in the
'declare' column. If you think your opponents are just foolishly
overbidding too much than it is probably more worthwhile to look at
doubling more than trying to overbid them. It is not much of an
exaggeration to suggest that every competitive auction where the
opponents go down, you should have at least considered doubling them.
The old saying is if the opponents never make a doubled contract, you
aren't doubling enough.

[Dave Flower]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

Look at the scores on boards where you were defending, and your side was declarer at the majority of tables.
If your scores were, on average, poor, then you should compete more.
If your scores were, on average, good, then no problem!

Dave Flower

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

Post by Dave Flower

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

Look at the scores on boards where you were defending, and your side was declarer at the majority of tables.
If your scores were, on average, poor, then you should compete more.
If your scores were, on average, good, then no problem!
Dave Flower

Thanks for that suggestion, that is a good idea, and may help me work out why my scores have declined significantly over the last five years.

[Douglas Newlands]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk

Post by Dave Flower

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

Look at the scores on boards where you were defending, and your side was declarer at the majority of tables.
If your scores were, on average, poor, then you should compete more.
If your scores were, on average, good, then no problem!
Dave Flower

Thanks for that suggestion, that is a good idea, and may help me work out why my scores have declined significantly over the last five years.

Have you changed partners in that time?
Is this one less skilled at carrying you or has this partnership not put
in enough work?
Are you getting sufficiently old that you see the top of the hill in the
rear view mirror? I have one partner who has that problem though he
thinks his decline at the table is worse than those around him think. He
is a gold GM with a silly amount of master points.
Have you changed clubs? Has the new one got a better field?

doug

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

Post by Douglas Newlands

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk

Post by Dave Flower

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

Look at the scores on boards where you were defending, and your side was declarer at the majority of tables.
If your scores were, on average, poor, then you should compete more.
If your scores were, on average, good, then no problem!
Dave Flower

Thanks for that suggestion, that is a good idea, and may help me work out why my scores have declined significantly over the last five years.

Have you changed partners in that time?
Is this one less skilled at carrying you or has this partnership not put
in enough work?
Are you getting sufficiently old that you see the top of the hill in the
rear view mirror? I have one partner who has that problem though he
thinks his decline at the table is worse than those around him think. He
is a gold GM with a silly amount of master points.
Have you changed clubs? Has the new one got a better field?
doug

I have a couple of regular partners, and a handful of scratch ones throughout the year which correspond to the worst results. I'm not sure the two regular partners are "carrying" me, they are of similar skill. I had a different regular partner several years ago who I got reasonable results with (usually a few % better than now), who moved away. I'm not that old, I'll turn 40 next month, I'm one of the youngest players in the club (I think the youngest on the primary evenings). The club I'm at currently does have a tendency to be rather random, there are a few strong pairs, and a lot of weak pairs. It is the sort of club where you get a bottom because you defend 3S, then find everyone else has made 3H your way, or because you get the only pair who bids the 20HCP distributional game, or the only pair who gets you down in a slam because no-one else plays Lightner doubles. The only other factor is I suffered a traumatic head injury in 2015 which left me with (non debilitating) brain damage. The neuropsychologist who examined me suggested that I was unlikely to play bridge to a decent standard, based on my performance on some cognitive tests being lower than expected.

[Lorne]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

One more thing to look at is your average score when defending (which I
think Pianola will show you). If it less than your average as
declarer/dummy then you definitely need to look at what you are doing.

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

Post by Lorne

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
I'm not sure how many here are familiar with Pianola, which is what my club has been using for the last couple of years. It is interesting to look at the statistics, and the ability to replay a hand in the paid version is instructive. There is a surprising statistic that has cropped up for me this year, which is the frequency of my partnerships declaring and defending. On average, I expect to defend half of all bridge hands, but in my case I have defended 67% of hands this year (or two out of every three). I don't know how statistically significant this is (it is based on 30 sessions, which works out at somewhere between 750 and 800 hands), but could this be evidence that I and/or my partner are too passive in the bidding and are letting the opponents buy the contract too often?

One more thing to look at is your average score when defending (which I
think Pianola will show you). If it less than your average as
declarer/dummy then you definitely need to look at what you are doing.

Average score 53.55%
As declarer 62.53%
As dummy 48.02%
As defender on lead 48.83%
As defender not on lead 52.11%

The average score is slightly misleading. In reality, in only 7 out of 30 sessions I have scored below 50%, but six of those are below 42%. Most of the scores above 50% are in the low to mid 50's, five are over 60%, so the distribution so far is skewed toward the low extremes, even though the mean is above 50%.

There is an indication that on average I declare the hand better than my partners, and my defence and opening leads have room for improvement. I recently bought Andrew Robson's book on defence which I have read, I found it easy to follow and it brought back a few techniques to my mind that I have maybe lapsed on over time. I seem to have had a lot of defence problems this year whereby there could be two possible layouts, one which requires defence A and the other requires defence B, and if I get it wrong I blow overtricks. I think I am getting these wrong more frequently than I should.

As for whether I should be doubling more, I probably should, but I find it difficult when I have a hand where, even based on what my partner has bid, I cannot see a route to take the opponents off, but bidding on is asking for some negative multiple of 100, so the opponents end up playing in something making or one off.