Difference of opinion

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

3NT for me. I have a double spade stop and a no-trumpy sort of hand. If
partner has four hearts rather than five, then the not unlikely 4-1
heart break might make 4H tricky to play.

--
John Hall
"Three o'clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do."
Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)

Mike Heins

2017-08-26 19:00:13 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

3NT.

--
Just because something is obviously happening doesn't mean something
obvious is happening. --Larry Wall

David Goldfarb

2017-08-26 23:56:45 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

I'd say it's very close between 3N and 4H, with pass a close third.
I think my choice is 3N.

--
David Goldfarb | "Justice or immortality. An intriguing choice."
***@gmail.com |
***@ocf.berkeley.edu | -- Babylon 5, "Deathwalker"

Player

2017-08-27 00:34:41 UTC

Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h holding this, I would not object.

Co Wiersma

2017-08-27 11:19:43 UTC

Post by Player
Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h holding this, I would not object.

Why is pass a zero?

Player

2017-08-28 06:49:47 UTC

Post by Co Wiersma

Post by Player
Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h holding this, I would not object.

Why is pass a zero?

Why Co? +500 is not as much as +620, let alone +1430 if partner has a good hand. Look at the vulnerabilty.

Co Wiersma

2017-08-28 08:19:26 UTC

Post by Player

Post by Co Wiersma

Post by Player
Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h holding this, I would not object.

Why is pass a zero?

Why Co? +500 is not as much as +620, let alone +1430 if partner has a good hand. Look at the vulnerabilty.

Sure, but it is quite possible that either 3NT or 4H is going down and
maybe I would choose the wrong game

So where I do understand why 3NT is getting the most points,
and I see arguments for bidding 4H
still I think that zero for "pass" is a bit mean

Co Wiersma

Player

2017-08-28 11:39:24 UTC

Post by Player
Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h holding this, I would not object.

Why is pass a zero?

Why Co? +500 is not as much as +620, let alone +1430 if partner has a good hand. Look at the vulnerabilty.

Sure, but it is quite possible that either 3NT or 4H is going down and
maybe I would choose the wrong game
So where I do understand why 3NT is getting the most points,
and I see arguments for bidding 4H
still I think that zero for "pass" is a bit mean
Co Wiersma

Co, you really think that when a pd makes a vul t/o x of 3S and I hold
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7

that game will fail a lot of times? I don't

Player

2017-08-28 11:42:56 UTC

Post by Player
Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h holding this, I would not object.

Why is pass a zero?

Why Co? +500 is not as much as +620, let alone +1430 if partner has a good hand. Look at the vulnerabilty.

Sure, but it is quite possible that either 3NT or 4H is going down and
maybe I would choose the wrong game
So where I do understand why 3NT is getting the most points,
and I see arguments for bidding 4H
still I think that zero for "pass" is a bit mean
Co Wiersma

Co, you really think that when a pd makes a vul t/o x of 3S and I hold
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
that game will fail a lot of times? I don't

After all, how often does doubler hold a void Axxx Axxx Axxxx
Even then I have chances, and yes in this case 4H is a far better contract than 3NT

Co Wiersma

2017-08-28 12:02:48 UTC

Post by Player
Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h holding this, I would not object.

Why is pass a zero?

Why Co? +500 is not as much as +620, let alone +1430 if partner has a good hand. Look at the vulnerabilty.

Sure, but it is quite possible that either 3NT or 4H is going down and
maybe I would choose the wrong game
So where I do understand why 3NT is getting the most points,
and I see arguments for bidding 4H
still I think that zero for "pass" is a bit mean
Co Wiersma

Co, you really think that when a pd makes a vul t/o x of 3S and I hold
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
that game will fail a lot of times? I don't

I dont either
So that is why we give more points to bidding game

Co Wiersma

Barry Margolin

2017-08-28 22:10:05 UTC

Post by Player
Pass is a zero choice of course. I would bid 3nt but if partner bid 4h
holding this, I would not object.

Why is pass a zero?

Why Co? +500 is not as much as +620, let alone +1430 if partner has a good
hand. Look at the vulnerabilty.

Sure, but it is quite possible that either 3NT or 4H is going down and
maybe I would choose the wrong game

Partner has made a takeout double that forces you to bid on the 4 level
with nothing. But you have a full opener, far better than he could
possibly expect, the only misfeature being the duplication in spades.

I'd be much more worried about missing a slam than going down.

Yes, bad breaks are likely, and maybe they could be a problem. But if
game isn't a good bet, parter really stretched for his double. He
shouldn't do that vulnerable.

--
Barry Margolin
Arlington, MA

Douglas Newlands

2017-08-29 01:27:01 UTC

Post by David Goldfarb

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

I'd say it's very close between 3N and 4H, with pass a close third.
I think my choice is 3N.

I'll ratherly randomly reply to this post and not any other.
I don't believe anyone is going to bid a slam on this hand
and, even if you are so inclined, I don't think you have room
to do it sensibly. Opposite everyone who bids 4H, what will partner do
with x AKxx AKxx AKxx? They'll pass since partner might have nothing.
They'll feel more uncomfortable opposite a 3NT bid but will probably
pass (altho 4N is possible I suppose but it seems aggressive).

So, as essentially everyone has pointed out,
it is a 3 way choice.
It is specified as IMP scoring and it is usually best to take the
safest number of approximately the right size and attempt to maximise
your expected score.
It is not pairs where you are trying to get the biggest score.

If partner has a minimum double (X AKxx AKxx xxxx)
4H will have possible outcomes being 12,11,10 or 9 tricks. Maybe less
is trumps are 4-1 or 5-0 (or 6-0) giving scores of 680, 650 and -100.
The defence will lead a spade and see the club switch with the above
hands and make 3 black tricks and a trump on the bad split.
The bad split is 32% before the 3S opener and is rather larger now,
say 40%. So the expectation is 60% of 650 and 40% of -100 = 390-40 = 350.
If instead we passed for the penalty we expect 2 spades and 1 heart
and 2 diamonds which is two off for +300 when hearts are 1-4 and
2 spades, 2 hearts, 2 diamonds for +500 when hearts are 3-2.
So the expectation is 60% of 500 and 40% of 300 = 300+120 = 420.

This seems to suggest the penalty pass is safer than 4H opposite a
minimum take out. If partner is better than minimum, the penalty
will be more, say 800 opposite x AKxx AKxx AKxx with stodgy play
and more if we can get a trump promotion via clubs.

The analysis is harder when the doubler has things like x AKxx Axxx Kxxx.

I think the pass is best but I'll leave it to others to correct
this cursory analysis.

doug

Fred.

2017-08-27 14:22:31 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

The argument for 4H is that a doubler holding extras
can try for slam in hearts. The argument for 3NT is
that a doubler holding extras will be warned of the
duplication of values and poor texture. 3NT.

Fred.

Player

2017-08-28 06:50:14 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

Good point Fred.

p***@infi.net

2017-08-28 02:11:28 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

Pass, 3NT and 4H are all plausible. I'll try 4H.

judyorcarl@verizon.net

2017-08-28 20:00:33 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

Those that consider 4H with Q8xx must consider it 100% that doubler has 4+.

What is to be done with x ; Axx ; AKxx ; AKxxx?

Carl

Fred.

2017-08-28 21:25:06 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

Those that consider 4H with Q8xx must consider it 100% that doubler has 4+.
What is to be done with x ; Axx ; AKxx ; AKxxx?
Carl

I considered 4H, but not for a moment did I feel the need
to consider it 100% that doubler had 4+ hearts. Neither
did I feel the need to consider it 100% that doubler
completes out club stop before bidding 3NT.

Fred.

judyorcarl@verizon.net

2017-08-28 23:53:34 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

Those that consider 4H with Q8xx must consider it 100% that doubler has 4+.
What is to be done with x ; Axx ; AKxx ; AKxxx?
Carl

This is not a heart suit that can play a 4-3.

Carl

judyorcarl@verizon.net

2017-08-29 00:33:05 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

Those that consider 4H with Q8xx must consider it 100% that doubler has 4+.
What is to be done with x ; Axx ; AKxx ; AKxxx?
Carl

Life is too short to worry about an unbid suit.

Life is not too short to worry about multiple trump losers.

Carl

Fred.

2017-09-01 18:56:01 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

Those that consider 4H with Q8xx must consider it 100% that doubler has 4+.
What is to be done with x ; Axx ; AKxx ; AKxxx?
Carl

Life is too short to worry about an unbid suit.
Life is not too short to worry about multiple trump losers.
Carl

The point is that it is the overall texture of the hand,
not just the heart suit which suggests play in NT.

Holding, say

753
Q843
AK4
Q73,

not only is 3NT unavailable for lack of a stopper
but you have a better expectation of high hearts
in the doubling hand.

Fred.

Robert Chance

2017-08-29 21:03:01 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

3NT.

If partner has, say, x AKxx AKxx Jxxx then 3NT is virtually assured, but 4H is not. And that's before we consider the possibility of partner only holding three hearts.

3NT also gives partner more room to make a slam try.

I would only consider passing if I am familiar with opponents' style of pre-empts (if LHO is liable to open QJTxxx at the 3-level in first seat at this vulnerability, then pass could work well).

Dave Flower

2017-08-30 08:18:19 UTC

Post by Robert Chance

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

3NT.
If partner has, say, x AKxx AKxx Jxxx then 3NT is virtually assured, but 4H is not. And that's before we consider the possibility of partner only holding three hearts.
3NT also gives partner more room to make a slam try.
I would only consider passing if I am familiar with opponents' style of pre-empts (if LHO is liable to open QJTxxx at the 3-level in first seat at this vulnerability, then pass could work well).

3NT - less vulnerable to bad breaks.

Dave Flower

PS A more interesting problem in match-pointed pairs

Lorne

2017-08-30 10:41:53 UTC

Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

For those who are interested a simulation with E fixed as shown and the
remaining 39 cards randomly dealt to analyse 1,000 hands where S is
opening 3S, W having a normal T/O double and N not constrained shows 3N
is a big winner over 4H (my partners unsuccesful choice as I did not
have 4 hearts).

Slam is not worth worrying about as it is well under 5%, again with 6N
slightly more common than 6H.

The surprising result was that 3S makes over 20% of the time but that
may be because my program is quite aggresive at double when shape is
right although it is also very aggressive at opening 3S at favourable
vul which balances that out.

Another key result is that looking only at the hands where 4H makes, 3N
also makes nearly all the time with only a 6% chance of going off in 3N
when you could have made 4H (and much bigger chance of going off in 4H
when 3N makes).

I realise the simulation is not perfect (ie no constraint on N so he
might have a raise or rdble, but it seems to support most of what nearly
everybody thought.

Player

2017-08-30 15:07:43 UTC

The fact that 3s makes 20 percent of the time does not surprise me at all.

Robert Chance

2017-08-31 13:49:07 UTC

Post by Lorne
Another key result is that looking only at the hands where 4H makes, 3N
also makes nearly all the time with only a 6% chance of going off in 3N
when you could have made 4H (and much bigger chance of going off in 4H
when 3N makes).

I suspect that at least some of this 6% requires LHO to find a double-dummy club lead, so the actual likelihood of 3N going off and 4H making is even lower.

Give partner, say, x Kxx AKJxxx AKJ, and it is conceivable that you could be making 6NT at one table (I think partner is worth 4D over 3N), and going off in 4H at the other (partner may well pass 4H on this hand, and it may go off on a 5-1 break, let alone 6-0).

Lorne

2017-09-01 09:27:37 UTC

Post by Robert Chance

I suspect that at least some of this 6% requires LHO to find a double-dummy club lead, so the actual likelihood of 3N going off and 4H making is even lower.
Give partner, say, x Kxx AKJxxx AKJ, and it is conceivable that you could be making 6NT at one table (I think partner is worth 4D over 3N), and going off in 4H at the other (partner may well pass 4H on this hand, and it may go off on a 5-1 break, let alone 6-0).

This is quite close to what happened - doubler had 17 pts, 6D & 6N made,
opener was void in H but their partner very unkindly passed in tempo
with the trump stack so the impending doom was never apparent until too
late.

Will in New Haven

2017-09-03 05:28:47 UTC

Post by Lorne
Settle a difference of opinion here. Vul vs not Vul, IMP scoring, what
AK75
Q843
Q43
Q7
(3S) Dbl (P) to you.

3NT is my choice. My partnerships tend toward a very disciplined attitude toward shape for a Takeout Double but partner can still have three Hearts. While suits can break badly in NT, the contract isn't as reliant on breaks in any one suit.

I love head-hunting but pass looks very bad. The AK of trumps are no surprise to opener, he or she knew that they were missing. I would rather have unexpected tricks in their trump suit and some quick tricks outside.

I could also claim that 3NT shows some values here and might help us get to slam while 4H is just taking out partner's double as requested but playing me for values just because I bid 3NT might be a stretch.

--
Will in New Haven, now in Pompano Beach

Sandy Barnes

2017-12-06 01:38:13 UTC