Post by Robert ChancePost by Fred.Post by Robert ChancePost by Fred.Sorry. I can see how you may have been mystified. I forgot to
switch the minors back, and then life intervened. I think this
7
AK4
T742
QT962
KJ95 QT
T73 Q982
J863 AKQ95
J7 54
A86432
J65
-
AK83
I think 5C makes with distribution at least as even as
spades 4-2 and clubs 3-1.
There is an interesting defensive problem if East holds doubleton spade and Jxx of trumps. When declarer ruffs the third round of spades in dummy (which should be ruffed with the ten, to give East an opportunity to go wrong), East must avoid overruffing. Even if declarer now plays a club to the eight, the contract is now down. If East makes the mistake of overruffing the third (or fourth) round of spades, declarer retains trump control and makes the contract.
South's view of the hand was that if spades were established spades after drawing one round of trump the defense could be held to the two remaining
W N E S
1 H3 HK* H2 H5
2 S5 S7 ST SA*
3 S9 C6* SQ S2
4 C7 C2 C4 CA*
5 SJ C9* D5 S3
6 H7 HA* H8 H6
7 D3 D2 DQ C3*
8 SK CQ* H9 S4
9 D6 D4 D9 C8*
a D8 H4 C5* S6
b DJ D7 DK CK*
c CJ* DT DA S8
d HT CT* HQ HJ
As you noted, if anyone ruffs in at any
point and returns a trump South now has
the trump control to establish (if need be) and
run spades.
But, I still may have missed something in the
analysis.
Fred.
Your analysis is quite correct on a heart lead. I had assumed a diamond lead, which shortens declarer's trumps before you can get started on setting the spades up. On a diamond lead you can, I think, usually be defeated if trumps are 3-1 and spades are 4-2.
I remember believing that a diamond lead was a bye as long as
East held 2 or more spades, but I can't remember what convinced me.
However, on a diamond lead it seems natural to roll with the punch
and ruff four diamonds, taking advantage of the fact that West has
saved South a board entry. After the 4th diamond ruff South ruffs
a 3rd spade in dummy with the C6. This makes the contract, losing
the CJ and a heart whenever East has at least 2 spades and either
West has the C7 or East has a 3rd spade.
Perhaps I confused the C6 with the C7 the first time.
It is interesting to hold 9 trump while needing to surrender a
trump trick to retain control of the hand and having the trump
7 a key card.
Fred.