Discussion:
Wrong contract !
(too old to reply)
Dave Flower
2018-03-14 15:38:52 UTC
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Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?

87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3

A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9

Dave Flower

PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
John Hall
2018-03-14 18:41:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
It would help if I knew the opening lead.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)
Dave Flower
2018-03-14 20:01:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Hall
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
It would help if I knew the opening lead.
H5
Post by John Hall
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)
John Hall
2018-03-14 20:58:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Hall
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
It would help if I knew the opening lead.
H5
Thanks.

I wonder if the best chance is to ruff the opening lead and run the
other trump from dummy. If RHO has any singleton or doubleton trump
honour, or has KQx, that will keep my trump losers to one, and I won't
need the club finesse as I can eventually discard my second club on a
top diamond.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)
John Hall
2018-03-14 21:07:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Hall
Post by John Hall
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
It would help if I knew the opening lead.
H5
Thanks.
I wonder if the best chance is to ruff the opening lead and run the
other trump from dummy. If RHO has any singleton or doubleton trump
honour, or has KQx, that will keep my trump losers to one, and I won't
need the club finesse as I can eventually discard my second club on a
top diamond.
Oh yes, and if RHO plays low on the trump lead, I should overtake with
the 9 to be in hand should RHO have started with KQx or if LHO ducks.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)
d***@yahoo.com
2018-03-14 18:56:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
Assume the opening lead is a red card. If a diamond, win the Q in dummy. If a heart, win and lead to the Q of diamonds.

Finesse in trumps. Eventually, get back to dummy with the Ace of Diamonds and lead the Queen of clubs. If it holds, finesse in trumps again. If the Queen of clubs is covered, win the Ace and get back to dummy with a club to finesse trumps again.

If the club loses, the hand probably can never be made unless there is some kind of endplay available that I'm missing or unless there is a singleton club king offside...
Travis Crump
2018-03-14 23:43:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by d***@yahoo.com
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
Assume the opening lead is a red card. If a diamond, win the Q in dummy. If a heart, win and lead to the Q of diamonds.
Finesse in trumps. Eventually, get back to dummy with the Ace of Diamonds and lead the Queen of clubs. If it holds, finesse in trumps again. If the Queen of clubs is covered, win the Ace and get back to dummy with a club to finesse trumps again.
If the club loses, the hand probably can never be made unless there is some kind of endplay available that I'm missing or unless there is a singleton club king offside...
Line A; ruffing opening heart lead to take 1 spade finesse: 11 3-2s, 2
4-1s: ~43%

Line B; attempt to take two trump finesses: 16 3-2s, 5 4-1s: ~68.4%

But line B also requires a club finesse [plus exposing yourself to minor
suit ruffs] that is worse than 50% so line A looks better.
Lorne
2018-03-15 00:42:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Travis Crump
Post by d***@yahoo.com
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
Assume the opening lead is a red card. If a diamond, win the Q in dummy. If a heart, win and lead to the Q of diamonds.
Finesse in trumps. Eventually, get back to dummy with the Ace of Diamonds and lead the Queen of clubs. If it holds, finesse in trumps again. If the Queen of clubs is covered, win the Ace and get back to dummy with a club to finesse trumps again.
If the club loses, the hand probably can never be made unless there is some kind of endplay available that I'm missing or unless there is a singleton club king offside...
Line A; ruffing opening heart lead to take 1 spade finesse: 11 3-2s, 2
4-1s: ~43%
Line B; attempt to take two trump finesses: 16 3-2s, 5 4-1s: ~68.4%
But line B also requires a club finesse [plus exposing yourself to minor
suit ruffs] that is worse than 50% so line A looks better.
You just beat me to it on this but I thought I would mention two points.

Firstly you have assumed no opposition bidding which is likely to be
true (I know you know that but some others may not realise that a bid
may affect the odds if it gives relevant info about the likely
distribution of a side suit).

Second is that the club finesse is an awkward calculation since its odds
of success vary if the trumps are 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, or 1-4 and since the
odds of losing 1 trumps vary according to each distribution you can't
just multiply 68.4% by 50%. I make the Line B odds 33.8% (ignoring
minor suit ruffs).
f***@googlemail.com
2018-03-15 07:37:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Travis Crump
Post by d***@yahoo.com
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
Assume the opening lead is a red card. If a diamond, win the Q in dummy. If a heart, win and lead to the Q of diamonds.
Finesse in trumps. Eventually, get back to dummy with the Ace of Diamonds and lead the Queen of clubs. If it holds, finesse in trumps again. If the Queen of clubs is covered, win the Ace and get back to dummy with a club to finesse trumps again.
If the club loses, the hand probably can never be made unless there is some kind of endplay available that I'm missing or unless there is a singleton club king offside...
Line A; ruffing opening heart lead to take 1 spade finesse: 11 3-2s, 2
4-1s: ~43%
How do you get to 11 3-2s?
Post by Travis Crump
Line B; attempt to take two trump finesses: 16 3-2s, 5 4-1s: ~68.4%
But line B also requires a club finesse [plus exposing yourself to minor
suit ruffs] that is worse than 50% so line A looks better.
Lorne
2018-03-15 11:58:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by f***@googlemail.com
Post by Travis Crump
Line A; ruffing opening heart lead to take 1 spade finesse: 11 3-2s, 2
4-1s: ~43%
How do you get to 11 3-2s?
I got the same:

When the doubleton is in front of the long trumps:
3x Kx + 3x Qx + KQ = 7
when the doubleton is behind:
3x KQx + xxx = 4

Maybe to be clearer it is combination of 3-2 and 2-3.
Mick Heins
2018-03-15 13:10:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by f***@googlemail.com
Post by Travis Crump
Post by d***@yahoo.com
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
Assume the opening lead is a red card. If a diamond, win the Q in dummy. If a heart, win and lead to the Q of diamonds.
Finesse in trumps. Eventually, get back to dummy with the Ace of Diamonds and lead the Queen of clubs. If it holds, finesse in trumps again. If the Queen of clubs is covered, win the Ace and get back to dummy with a club to finesse trumps again.
If the club loses, the hand probably can never be made unless there is some kind of endplay available that I'm missing or unless there is a singleton club king offside...
Line A; ruffing opening heart lead to take 1 spade finesse: 11 3-2s, 2
4-1s: ~43%
How do you get to 11 3-2s?
K6
K5
K4
KQ6
KQ5
KQ4
Q6
Q5
Q4
KQ
654
Post by f***@googlemail.com
Post by Travis Crump
Line B; attempt to take two trump finesses: 16 3-2s, 5 4-1s: ~68.4%
But line B also requires a club finesse [plus exposing yourself to minor
suit ruffs] that is worse than 50% so line A looks better.
--
Mickey

An amateur practices until he gets it right. A pro
practices until he can't get it wrong. -- unknown
Dave Flower
2018-03-18 10:30:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
I took line A at the table which succeeded as Qx was onside; line B would have failed - the CK was onside, but so were all the other clubs !

Dave Flower
Dave Flower
2018-03-18 22:01:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Flower
Post by Dave Flower
Skilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
I took line A at the table which succeeded as Qx was onside; line B would have failed - the CK was onside, but so were all the other clubs !
Dave Flower
A further advantage of line A is that it does not require a 3-2 diamond break, and making 12 tricks in spades is only likely to be a good score if the diamonds do not break

Dave Flower

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