Post by Travis CrumpPost by d***@yahoo.comPost by Dave FlowerSkilfully missing the ice cold 6NT, how do you play the following hand in 6S ?
87
void
A Q 8 6 5 4
Q J 10 7 3
A J 10 9 3 2
A K Q
K 10
A 9
Dave Flower
PS I actually played in 4S, making 6; not a good score as the diamonds were 3-2
Assume the opening lead is a red card. If a diamond, win the Q in dummy. If a heart, win and lead to the Q of diamonds.
Finesse in trumps. Eventually, get back to dummy with the Ace of Diamonds and lead the Queen of clubs. If it holds, finesse in trumps again. If the Queen of clubs is covered, win the Ace and get back to dummy with a club to finesse trumps again.
If the club loses, the hand probably can never be made unless there is some kind of endplay available that I'm missing or unless there is a singleton club king offside...
Line A; ruffing opening heart lead to take 1 spade finesse: 11 3-2s, 2
4-1s: ~43%
Line B; attempt to take two trump finesses: 16 3-2s, 5 4-1s: ~68.4%
But line B also requires a club finesse [plus exposing yourself to minor
suit ruffs] that is worse than 50% so line A looks better.
You just beat me to it on this but I thought I would mention two points.
Firstly you have assumed no opposition bidding which is likely to be
true (I know you know that but some others may not realise that a bid
may affect the odds if it gives relevant info about the likely
distribution of a side suit).
Second is that the club finesse is an awkward calculation since its odds
of success vary if the trumps are 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, or 1-4 and since the
odds of losing 1 trumps vary according to each distribution you can't
just multiply 68.4% by 50%. I make the Line B odds 33.8% (ignoring
minor suit ruffs).