missed slam (1)

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.

North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3

N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP

7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

[Charles Brenner]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

I think South, having only 5 losers per the LTC, should bid 6S.

North has the 7 loser hand expected for forcing to game. Subtracting the combined loser count of 7+5 from 18, the losing trick count (LTC) predicts making 6S.

From the South hand that's credible. Why? The LTC rule is premised on the conditions
1. No wasted A, K, or Q. South knows that's true in clubs, but diamonds are problematic.
2. One and only one long card loser. South's 5-card side suit probably has no long card losers. That probably compensates for the minus in diamonds.

In reality, the diamonds and hearts are *both* perfect contrary to the LTC model. Hence in reality we do a trick better than the model predicts.

[ais523]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

South's hand gets rather stronger opposite a game-forcing splinter, even
if it's by a passed hand: you know there are no club losers, and for
North to have enough to splinter, it's likely that there are no spade
losers either. I think you'd have to be worried about a potential
diamond loser, though, and East's intervention makes it harder to check.

South definitely needs to bid more than 5S. There's room for a cuebid
here but South doesn't have any red Aces. I think 5H is the correct
bid if you play that a cuebid shows King or Ace, but if you place
cuebids as Aces only (which probably works better here), the correct
sequence is likely to pass, then bid 5S opposite North's likely double
(which shows a slam try with no available cue bid). As North, the two
Aces would make me want to double rather than bid 5S, even at this
vulnerability (South's pass could be a slam try, but normally
indicates not knowing what to do, and if South isn't sure about spades
we should probably be defending).

I'm generally not a huge fan of splinters unless they're defined very
precisely: they use up a very large amount of bidding space. North's
hand does look very close to what South will be expecting, though, so it
seems like a good choice if there's nothing more precise available in
the bidding system.

Out of curiosity, how much does 5C go down? On those hands, I can
easily imagine it being down six, which is a big argument for South not
settling for 5S; 5C only needs to go down 4 to make a double score
better than a making 5S, and if 5C doesn't go down 4 then 5S probably
won't make. If you're worried that both sides have a big fit in a
black suit, you can pass, which North should double unless they have a
very offensive hand. (North can't have a hand that would pass; it
doesn't make any sense to pass out the opponents at the 5 level after
making a slam try.)

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

Post by ais523

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

South's hand gets rather stronger opposite a game-forcing splinter, even
if it's by a passed hand: you know there are no club losers, and for
North to have enough to splinter, it's likely that there are no spade
losers either. I think you'd have to be worried about a potential
diamond loser, though, and East's intervention makes it harder to check.
South definitely needs to bid more than 5S. There's room for a cuebid
here but South doesn't have any red Aces. I think 5H is the correct
bid if you play that a cuebid shows King or Ace, but if you place
cuebids as Aces only (which probably works better here), the correct
sequence is likely to pass, then bid 5S opposite North's likely double
(which shows a slam try with no available cue bid). As North, the two
Aces would make me want to double rather than bid 5S, even at this
vulnerability (South's pass could be a slam try, but normally
indicates not knowing what to do, and if South isn't sure about spades
we should probably be defending).
I'm generally not a huge fan of splinters unless they're defined very
precisely: they use up a very large amount of bidding space. North's
hand does look very close to what South will be expecting, though, so it
seems like a good choice if there's nothing more precise available in
the bidding system.
Out of curiosity, how much does 5C go down? On those hands, I can
easily imagine it being down six, which is a big argument for South not
settling for 5S; 5C only needs to go down 4 to make a double score
better than a making 5S, and if 5C doesn't go down 4 then 5S probably
won't make. If you're worried that both sides have a big fit in a
black suit, you can pass, which North should double unless they have a
very offensive hand. (North can't have a hand that would pass; it
doesn't make any sense to pass out the opponents at the 5 level after
making a slam try.)
--
ais523

According to Deep Finesse, 5C is down four double dummy. The full deal is:

K954
A974
A983
2
J62 T
Q3 T8
K42 QJT65
KT965 QJ874
AQ873
KJ652
7
A3

East was yet another gambler who bids on any excuse.

[Douglas Newlands]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

Over 5C, NS are clearly in an FP position so 5S is just wrong.
With 5 losers, he should show slam interest with 5H.
N has 6 losers (the 9 card trump fit means only 1 spade loser) so
should be going on opposite a partner who is showing slam interest
opposite what might be a less good hand.
If yjay's not a viable argument, S should just bash it.

doug

[Lorne]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

5S is the last thing I would do with South. 5 losers and a perfect club
holding opposite the splinter make slam likely so pass (forcing), 5D,
5H, 6C and 6S are all better than 5S.

[Dave Flower]

Post by Lorne

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

5S is the last thing I would do with South. 5 losers and a perfect club
holding opposite the splinter make slam likely so pass (forcing), 5D,
5H, 6C and 6S are all better than 5S.

The club holding is less than perfect; Axxx would be better

Dave Flower

[Lorne]

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Lorne

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

5S is the last thing I would do with South. 5 losers and a perfect club
holding opposite the splinter make slam likely so pass (forcing), 5D,
5H, 6C and 6S are all better than 5S.

The club holding is less than perfect; Axxx would be better
Dave Flower

I am not certain of that.

Ax is a certain 2 tricks and no losers. Axx is likely to be 3 tricks and
no losers as long as two dummy ruffs do not cause any issues. But Axxx
needs 3 ruffs in dummy which may hamper drawing trumps as you need
several entries back to hand. If you can't ruff 3 times and have an
outside loser you have to make sure there is still a trump in dummy when
you lose that trick which may be risky.

In the above hand for example if the heart 5 is a club then a 4-1 heart
break may give you 2 heart losers making Ax of clubs better than Axx.

[Will in New Haven]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
X-imps, 5 card majors, strong NT, red vs green.
North South
K954 AQ873
A974 KJ652
A983 7
2 A3
N E S W
P P 1S P
4C* 5C 5S AP
7S makes thanks to the 2-2 heart break. How sould this have been bid?

I probably opened the North hand. Mind you, our methods say that I shouldn't but 2.5 Quicks are going to talk me into it most nights. After I raise 1S to 2S, partner is going to know that
1: I think I have an opening bid.
2: I have four Spades (being raised on three gives her hives, so I stopped)
3: I don't have a weak NT
and I am probably not going to be able to keep her out of slam.

If Deb is in first seat, she will pass and then splinter, just as in the given auction. I won't bid 5S. I might bid 6S.