Looking for help understanding the play of this board

[ais523]

East holds (dealer S, both vulnerable):

S QJ2
H QT63
D AJ84
C 73

The opponents have bid uncontested to 3NT:

N S
Pass
1D 1S (Acol; 1D guarantees four diamonds)
2NT 3NT (2NT = 17-18 balanced)

Question 1: What would you lead as East here?

(spoilers below)









The double-dummy answer to this question surprised me. It turned out
that this was the whole board:

S AK8
H J4
D KQ93
C KJ54

S T3 S QJ2
H 975 H QT63
D 762 D AJ84
C AQ962 C 73

S 97654
H AK82
D T5
C T8

Normally I can understand hands by following them in a double-dummy
solver, but trying that for this particular board, I don't understand
the strategy being indicated for both sides, especially in the heart
suit. (For example, West has to hang onto the H9 for a while even
though I haven't yet figured out which line this matters in.) The
solver isn't giving me much guidance to which lines to look at or what
the idea behind the hand is. As such, I could do with some pointers to
help me understand what's going on here.

Question 2: What's the "key" to this board, i.e. what are the various
sides' plans?

Question 3: Why does E/W's play in hearts have to be so specific? What
scenarios is it trying to bring about / prevent?

[Travis Crump]

Post by ais523
S QJ2
H QT63
D AJ84
C 73
N S
Pass
1D 1S (Acol; 1D guarantees four diamonds)
2NT 3NT (2NT = 17-18 balanced)
Question 1: What would you lead as East here?
(spoilers below)
The double-dummy answer to this question surprised me. It turned out
S AK8
H J4
D KQ93
C KJ54
S T3 S QJ2
H 975 H QT63
D 762 D AJ84
C AQ962 C 73
S 97654
H AK82
D T5
C T8
Normally I can understand hands by following them in a double-dummy
solver, but trying that for this particular board, I don't understand
the strategy being indicated for both sides, especially in the heart
suit. (For example, West has to hang onto the H9 for a while even
though I haven't yet figured out which line this matters in.) The
solver isn't giving me much guidance to which lines to look at or what
the idea behind the hand is. As such, I could do with some pointers to
help me understand what's going on here.
Question 2: What's the "key" to this board, i.e. what are the various
sides' plans?
Question 3: Why does E/W's play in hearts have to be so specific? What
scenarios is it trying to bring about / prevent?

Without putting it into a double dummy solver my guess would be east
leads the HQ. North plays three rounds of spades. East continues with a
small heart. Declarer wins the other top heart in dummy so as not to
strand the spades and cashes the spades. Coming down to:

S ---
H ---
D KQ9
C KJ5

S --- S ---
H 9 H T6
D 76 D AJ8
C AQ9 C 7

S ---
H 82
D T5
C T8

EW are aiming to get 1 spade, 2 hearts, 1 diamond, and 1 club. It should
be obvious why West keeps the H9; they hope to take a trick with it. On
a heart or a club lead, EW can just cash 4 tricks immediately. If
declarer leads DT to the DK at this point, East can just duck. EW will
get an extra minor suit trick if declarer prevents them from untangling
hearts. If declarer strands the spades, EW should be able to get 1
spade, 2 diamonds, and 2 clubs without too much trouble. Not sure if
they can get more than that on those lines.

I would not have found the HQ lead. I would have led a low heart.

[ais523]

Post by Travis Crump

Post by ais523
The double-dummy answer to this question surprised me. It turned out
S AK8
H J4
D KQ93
C KJ54
S T3 S QJ2
H 975 H QT63
D 762 D AJ84
C AQ962 C 73
S 97654
H AK82
D T5
C T8

EW are aiming to get 1 spade, 2 hearts, 1 diamond, and 1 club. It should
be obvious why West keeps the H9; they hope to take a trick with it. On
a heart or a club lead, EW can just cash 4 tricks immediately. If
declarer leads DT to the DK at this point, East can just duck. EW will
get an extra minor suit trick if declarer prevents them from untangling
hearts. If declarer strands the spades, EW should be able to get 1
spade, 2 diamonds, and 2 clubs without too much trouble. Not sure if
they can get more than that on those lines.
I would not have found the HQ lead. I would have led a low heart.

OK, I think I'm starting to understand.

The key to this hand is dummy entries (dummy is South, because I forgot
to rotate the board). What N/S really want to do with the lead in South
is to:

a) cash spades (requires three rounds of spades to have been played
already)

b) take the club finesse twice

c) cash hearts, if N tries to take the J separately

There are only two real entries to the South hand, HA and HK. So a heart
lead forces N/S to use one immediately (N only has two hearts). The
lead has to be the HQ specifically, because otherwise N will take the
Jack and cash three rounds of hearts. West needs to keep the H9 for a
similar reason: otherwise, double-dummy, North will unblock the Jack
on the opening lead, and get to South's hand by finessing the H8 (thus
allowing three heart tricks without losing the entry).

The other possibility to get to South's hand is an endplay, but it
doesn't work; it's almost possible to endplay East but East has a safe
escape via playing diamonds from the top, which will draw all South's
diamonds and thus make them a safe suit to escape in. (Spades before N/S
attack them, hearts, and clubs would all give N/S a trick. I don't think
I'd have found that at the table.)

There's a lot of flexibility in which tricks the defence gets, depending
on which tricks the declarer tries to cash, but declarer doesn't have
the entries to reach all the tricks that could otherwise be established.