What do you lead?

[Adam Lea]

MPs, you hold as South:

82
KQT
9732
8743

N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP

*Announced as 20 HCP.

[John Hall]

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

Especially at MPs, the heart King seems obvious (or Queen if you lead
second-highest with this holding).

[Berti Rupsli]

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

*NO WAY* for an aggressive H lead here IMO! You would lead into the strong 2NT opener; he might not find a better help than that (knowing where the HQ sits)! I would lead C8 (=top of nothing) and wait to see what happens.

Berti

[Lorne Anderson]

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I would lead whichever high heart does not ask for an unblock. You only
lose if dummy has Jxx (no stayman remember) and declarer the ace but you
gain a lot if prtner has the J with some length.

Any other lead gives declarer the effect of an extra entry to dummy for
a finesse so will cost unless partner has cards in that suit which
prevent it costing.

[Berti Rupsli]

Post by Lorne Anderson

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I would lead whichever high heart does not ask for an unblock. You only
lose if dummy has Jxx (no stayman remember) and declarer the ace but you
gain a lot if prtner has the J with some length.
Any other lead gives declarer the effect of an extra entry to dummy for
a finesse so will cost unless partner has cards in that suit which
prevent it costing.

Actually pd must hold "something" here, as they should hold about 26-30HCP (if both are bal). But the statistical expectation for pd holding specifically HJ is lower than otherwise. So, you might give away 1-2 tricks extra, opposite the lower chance of pd holding HJ. And *IF* pd holds HJ you might still get your chances. But if oppts hold 9 tricks already, then it doesn't matter...

And if you bet on pd holding HJ shouldn't you lead HT then (inner sequence)?

Berti

[Berti Rupsli]

Post by Berti Rupsli

Post by Lorne Anderson

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I would lead whichever high heart does not ask for an unblock. You only
lose if dummy has Jxx (no stayman remember) and declarer the ace but you
gain a lot if prtner has the J with some length.
Any other lead gives declarer the effect of an extra entry to dummy for
a finesse so will cost unless partner has cards in that suit which
prevent it costing.

Actually pd must hold "something" here, as they should hold about 26-30HCP (if both are bal). But the statistical expectation for pd holding specifically HJ is lower than otherwise. So, you might give away 1-2 tricks extra, opposite the lower chance of pd holding HJ. And *IF* pd holds HJ you might still get your chances. But if oppts hold 9 tricks already, then it doesn't matter...
And if you bet on pd holding HJ shouldn't you lead HT then (inner sequence)?
Berti

sorry, I meant "like" an inner sequence - but forget it, it doesn't make sense here. I'd expect RHO holding HA(...); if pd or LHO holds HJ(xx) it wouldn't matter, if RHO holds it, it will give him 2 "safe" tricks. So, HT Lead never gains!

[Lorne Anderson]

Post by Berti Rupsli
And if you bet on pd holding HJ shouldn't you lead HT then (inner sequence)?
Berti

You missed my point that you only lose if dummy has Jxx. You get to see
dummy before trick 2 and also see partners signal so you obviously
switch if declarer has the J (which partners signal will tell you) and
you continue with the second high heart if dummy has Jx or partner says
he likes the lead.

If the oppo have bid sensibly they will usually have 9 tricks if you
give them time to set them up, and leading any other suit may easily
take a useful finesse for declarer helping him set up 9 tricks. The
best chance for defeat is to find partner with an entry and Jxxxx of
hearts and if the signal denies that you can switch after looking at
dummy which gives you a better chance of avoiding a fatal play.

[Berti Rupsli]

Post by Lorne Anderson

...

You missed my point that you only lose if dummy has Jxx. You get to see
dummy before trick 2 and also see partners signal so you obviously
switch if declarer has the J (which partners signal will tell you) and
you continue with the second high heart if dummy has Jx or partner says
he likes the lead.
If the oppo have bid sensibly they will usually have 9 tricks if you
give them time to set them up, and leading any other suit may easily
take a useful finesse for declarer helping him set up 9 tricks. The
best chance for defeat is to find partner with an entry and Jxxxx of
hearts and if the signal denies that you can switch after looking at
dummy which gives you a better chance of avoiding a fatal play.

If dummy has Jxx you'll lose 2 tricks (even assuming declarer holds HA...) this seems a fact, there's nothing to misunderstand. Yes, it would be informative to see dummy and read pd's signal - but in this given case it's already too late then - IMO *THIS* is the fatal play you mentioned! By NOT leading an H honor you will lose only 1 trick in H in this case!
Of course, "tempo" could be an issue, but so could you easily present the missing 9th trick to declarer (in H, but here HARDLY in a side-suit, see below).

Considering the real holding (see above) the H lead is more or less without pro or con. But when assuming *declarer* holds the HA(...) then IMO there is more to consider on the H honor lead (and forget the HT lead, I corrected it already):

If pd holds HJ(...) it's good (but should still be good later in the play, unless 9 tricks...), if dummy holds it then it's bad, if declarer holds it then it shouldn't matter at all. So it's 50:50.
If dummy or pd (actually unlikely) hold HA... (or even H:AJ...) it wouldn't matter anyhow, unless the HA is singleton.
Yes, the lead from top of nothing from a minor (eg C8) could lead into declarer's tenace, but the respective finesse will work lateron anyhow!

I do agree that (quote): "The best chance for defeat is to find partner with an entry and Jxxxx of hearts"... but that's wishful thinking, and it comes at a considerable risk!

So, why should the H honor lead should be favored? I see a small advantage in NOT leading it. Or do I miss something (different)?

Berti

[Adam Lea]

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I decided to lead the HK, on the basis that I can at least set one trick
up, if partner has the J or A I have struck gold (not very likely
though), and if declarer has AJx(x) then if partner has an entry he
knows to push a heart through when he gets in. I know partner is marked
with a few points and I was concerned that leading from the rubbish
would pick up one of partners honor cards for declarer, which may be as
likely as declarer holding Axx(x) and dummy holding Jxx(x).

Sadly it didn't work out like that. Dummy held AJxx and was almost
strong enough for slam investigation. The full deal was:

QJ65
8732
J8
965
973 AKT4
AJ95 64
QT4 AK65
KJ2 AQT
82
KQT
9732
8743

I don't think it is possible to physically position the NS honor cards
more favourably for EW. Needless to say after the A covers my K,
declarer can lead towards the HJ and get three heart tricks. As the DJ
drops in two rounds four diamond tricks come in. Even the spade suit can
come in for no losers thanks to QJ under the AK. 12 tricks were made,
for a total bottom for NS. Two pairs went one or two off in 6NT, four
pairs were in 3NT making 9, 10 or 11 tricks and one pair was in 5NT
making 11. It appears my HK lead directed declarer towards a suitable
suit to attack for extra tricks, although whatever suit declarer attacks
will work on this deal.

A club lead from me is perfectly safe. The question is, if declarer
leads a small heart towards dummy, do I do best to split the honors or
play the ten smoothly, or is it not likely to matter?

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I decided to lead the HK, ...
Sadly it didn't work out like that. Dummy held AJxx and was almost
QJ65
8732
J8
965
973 AKT4
AJ95 64
QT4 AK65
KJ2 AQT
82
KQT
9732
8743
I don't think it is possible to physically position the NS honor cards
more favourably for EW. Needless to say after the A covers my K,
declarer can lead towards the HJ and get three heart tricks.

No, it is needful to say. After declarer wrongly won the first trick you had the opportunity on the 2nd round of hearts to insert the *ten*. Declarer of course covers with the J but now, with 9x remaining in the dummy, declarer must worry that you have Q8 remaining and therefore cannot safely develop the 3rd heart trick.

As the DJ drops in two rounds four diamond tricks come in.

They can, but not all declarers will find the winning play of the drop rather than the approximately equal chance of finessing the J. In particular if the course of the hand suggests that South is a slight favorite to have diamond length, the finesse is the better chance.

Even the spade suit can come in for no losers thanks to QJ under the AK.

It can, but the normal way to play the suit is from the top, gaining against short Q or J offside.

12 tricks were made,
for a total bottom for NS. Two pairs went one or two off in 6NT, four
pairs were in 3NT making 9, 10 or 11 tricks and one pair was in 5NT
making 11. It appears my HK lead directed declarer towards a suitable
suit to attack for extra tricks, although whatever suit declarer attacks
will work on this deal.

I disagree. Looks to me that your lead was irrelevant and the fate of the hand came later.

A club lead from me is perfectly safe. The question is, if declarer
leads a small heart towards dummy, do I do best to split the honors or
play the ten smoothly, or is it not likely to matter?

Split, and it does matter for the reason explained above.

[Adam Lea]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I decided to lead the HK, ...
Sadly it didn't work out like that. Dummy held AJxx and was almost
QJ65
8732
J8
965
973 AKT4
AJ95 64
QT4 AK65
KJ2 AQT
82
KQT
9732
8743
I don't think it is possible to physically position the NS honor cards
more favourably for EW. Needless to say after the A covers my K,
declarer can lead towards the HJ and get three heart tricks.

No, it is needful to say. After declarer wrongly won the first trick you had the opportunity on the 2nd round of hearts to insert the *ten*. Declarer of course covers with the J but now, with 9x remaining in the dummy, declarer must worry that you have Q8 remaining and therefore cannot safely develop the 3rd heart trick.

As the DJ drops in two rounds four diamond tricks come in.

They can, but not all declarers will find the winning play of the drop rather than the approximately equal chance of finessing the J. In particular if the course of the hand suggests that South is a slight favorite to have diamond length, the finesse is the better chance.

Even the spade suit can come in for no losers thanks to QJ under the AK.

It can, but the normal way to play the suit is from the top, gaining against short Q or J offside.

12 tricks were made,
for a total bottom for NS. Two pairs went one or two off in 6NT, four
pairs were in 3NT making 9, 10 or 11 tricks and one pair was in 5NT
making 11. It appears my HK lead directed declarer towards a suitable
suit to attack for extra tricks, although whatever suit declarer attacks
will work on this deal.

I disagree. Looks to me that your lead was irrelevant and the fate of the hand came later.

A club lead from me is perfectly safe. The question is, if declarer
leads a small heart towards dummy, do I do best to split the honors or
play the ten smoothly, or is it not likely to matter?

Split, and it does matter for the reason explained above.

Thanks for your analysis. It is becoming apparent that there is often
one piece of the analysis of a situation that I am missing at the table.
In this case, the idea that playing low on the second round of hearts
means declarer does not know that I have the stiff Q left, so cannot
continue the suit without risking blowing a trick. I know that
occasionally I play too quickly and may benefit from a few more seconds
pause for thought, but thinking too much risks giving the opposition
more information (i.e. what could I have to think about).

[Lorne Anderson]

Post by Adam Lea

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I decided to lead the HK, on the basis that I can at least set one trick
up, if partner has the J or A I have struck gold (not very likely
though), and if declarer has AJx(x) then if partner has an entry he
knows to push a heart through when he gets in. I know partner is marked
with a few points and I was concerned that leading from the rubbish
would pick up one of partners honor cards for declarer, which may be as
likely as declarer holding Axx(x) and dummy holding Jxx(x).
Sadly it didn't work out like that. Dummy held AJxx and was almost
QJ65
8732
J8
965
973 AKT4
AJ95 64
QT4 AK65
KJ2 AQT
82
KQT
9732
8743
I don't think it is possible to physically position the NS honor cards
more favourably for EW. Needless to say after the A covers my K,
declarer can lead towards the HJ and get three heart tricks. As the DJ
drops in two rounds four diamond tricks come in. Even the spade suit can
come in for no losers thanks to QJ under the AK. 12 tricks were made,
for a total bottom for NS. Two pairs went one or two off in 6NT, four
pairs were in 3NT making 9, 10 or 11 tricks and one pair was in 5NT
making 11. It appears my HK lead directed declarer towards a suitable
suit to attack for extra tricks, although whatever suit declarer attacks
will work on this deal.
A club lead from me is perfectly safe. The question is, if declarer
leads a small heart towards dummy, do I do best to split the honors or
play the ten smoothly, or is it not likely to matter?

Your lead was not the problem. Most players should make 12 tricks on any
lead. Also declarer whould have ducked the lead as your switch (unless
you find a club) will help him. Having not ducked you can give him a
problem by playing the 10 next as he will be scared to lead away from 95
in dummy and is limited to 2 hearts and will probably not risk a double
spade finesse.

[KWSchneider]

Post by Adam Lea

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

I decided to lead the HK, on the basis that I can at least set one trick
up, if partner has the J or A I have struck gold (not very likely
though), and if declarer has AJx(x) then if partner has an entry he
knows to push a heart through when he gets in. I know partner is marked
with a few points and I was concerned that leading from the rubbish
would pick up one of partners honor cards for declarer, which may be as
likely as declarer holding Axx(x) and dummy holding Jxx(x).
Sadly it didn't work out like that. Dummy held AJxx and was almost
QJ65
8732
J8
965
973 AKT4
AJ95 64
QT4 AK65
KJ2 AQT
82
KQT
9732
8743
I don't think it is possible to physically position the NS honor cards
more favourably for EW. Needless to say after the A covers my K,
declarer can lead towards the HJ and get three heart tricks. As the DJ
drops in two rounds four diamond tricks come in. Even the spade suit can
come in for no losers thanks to QJ under the AK. 12 tricks were made,
for a total bottom for NS. Two pairs went one or two off in 6NT, four
pairs were in 3NT making 9, 10 or 11 tricks and one pair was in 5NT
making 11. It appears my HK lead directed declarer towards a suitable
suit to attack for extra tricks, although whatever suit declarer attacks
will work on this deal.
A club lead from me is perfectly safe. The question is, if declarer
leads a small heart towards dummy, do I do best to split the honors or
play the ten smoothly, or is it not likely to matter?

The lead didn't cost you a thing - declarer can do it himself. There is only upside to the lead - unfortunately not on this hand.

[Dave Flower]

On a club lead, won in hand and a small heart led, play the King. It will, at least, give declarer something to think about

Dave Flower

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

[Player]

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

Certainly a H lead and for me the K. The Q would ask for an unblock.

[KWSchneider]

Post by Adam Lea
82
KQT
9732
8743
N E S W
P
P 2NT* P 3NT
AP
*Announced as 20 HCP.

Clearly one of the two royals in hearts depending on your agreements. Anything else makes no sense.