Post by nrford100Match Points, nobody vul., North is dealer.
N: Q4-AK92-AKT3-AQ3 (22 HCP)
S: J2-76-Q965-KJ654 (7 HCP)
Double dummy analysis shows that on average (100 iterations of mixing
E-W cards and recalculating DDA), the most N-S can take is 10 tricks in
C/D, 8 in H, 5 in S, 7 in NT.
Is there a normal way (i.e.: not inventing a convention for this
specific deal) to open this 2C without going overboard?
How about with a normal opening other than 2C?
North's hand has five losers and no long major, so most people won't be
opening it 2C. Most likely they'll use a bid to show a strong balanced
hand. The Qx in spades isn't worth 2 points, so the hand is a bit of a
downgrade, but nonetheless will likely end up squarely in the common
20-22 2NT range, and you won't be able to stop South raising to game at
that point. Even if North downgrades to a 19-count (which would be
extreme), South will raise to game.
Note that 3NT will make unless the opponents lead spades; there are
plenty of winners, so it would be a good contract if not for the
unstopped suits. Most players choose not to look for unstopped suits, on
the basis that telling the opponents what to lead probably hurts more
than going down in game due to an unstopped suit does; there's no
guarantee that the opponents will find the unstopped suit even if it
exists.
However, systems that look for unstopped suits can be created, and they
will stay out of 3NT on this hand. I've been working on a somewhat
scientific system that aims to find the best contract without worrying
about giving away information (or about pre-empting the opponents
using a 1NT opening bid), and it bids these hands like this:
1C (ART, 13+ balanced or 13-15 one minor or strong 2 in a major)
1S (ART, 7+ no 4-card major)
3D (ART, 22-23 balanced; or might bid 3C showing 20-21 balanced)
3H (try for 3NT, no heart stopper)
3S (hearts stopped, no spade stopper)
and now South needs to decide between 4C or 5C, both to play. (I
haven't defined a pick-a-minor bid in this situation yet, because it's
fairly rare, but 4NT is unused so that would make sense. So perhaps we
would end up in 5D instead.)
That said, I would personally pick the 5-level contract. I'm surprised
that it normally goes down double-dummy; if diamonds split 3-2 and clubs
at worst 4-1, there are 11 top tricks and sufficient entries to take
them, so the only other risk would be an early ruff before you gain the
lead. I would have thought that it would therefore be above 50% to make
(thus worth bidding both at matchpoints and at IMPs), but maybe not?
--
ais523