Discussion:
Interesting Play Problem
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Robert Chance
2017-05-11 21:31:45 UTC
Permalink
You are South, declaring 3NT at Love All after the following sequence:

N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P

2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.

The hands are:

754
852
AKQ
AQJ6

AQ63
AJ9
T93
842

West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.

If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
Lorne Anderson
2017-05-11 23:23:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
W is now out of spades unless E has psyched so I play for either the
club K or heart 10 to be right or the clubs 3-3. ie win the lead and D
to dummy then heart to the 9. Finesse the club if that is returned and
later play a heart to the J.

Ducking the lead might lose if they switch to a heart and the 10 is
wrong along with the club K even if the clubs are 3-3 although it is low
odds to cost. I might however do it if the oppo lead low from 2 small
and E is a player likely to overcall on a weak 4 card suit.
rhm
2017-05-12 09:51:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lorne Anderson
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
W is now out of spades unless E has psyched so I play for either the
club K or heart 10 to be right or the clubs 3-3. ie win the lead and D
to dummy then heart to the 9. Finesse the club if that is returned and
later play a heart to the J.
Ducking the lead might lose if they switch to a heart and the 10 is
wrong along with the club K even if the clubs are 3-3 although it is low
odds to cost. I might however do it if the oppo lead low from 2 small
and E is a player likely to overcall on a weak 4 card suit.
I see an inconsistency between your first and your second paragraph.
Your line of play creates the same danger if East goes in with an heart honor.
say the king, when you play a heart from dummy.
What do you do?

Presumably you win but you are now down if East has played the King from Kx(x) in hearts when the clubs break with the king with East. (Ducking the heart king does not help because East simply continues spades.)

Better to start on clubs instead of playing a diamond to dummy. At least East might not duck the first club finesse.

The contract is cold if the club finesse works. So let's assume East has the club king.
The correct defense is for East to duck the first club finesse and play a heart honor on the first round of hearts.
This deprives declarer of making the contract when clubs are 3-3 but the hearts do not behave, unless East heart honor is singleton.
rhm
2017-05-12 13:12:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
This is in deed an interesting problem, which requirea complex analysis.
To simplify this I will assume spades are 1-5 and the club king is with East, because any rational declarer will succeed if the club finesse works.

Ducking the spade is hard to evaluate.
East might possibly switch to an unsupported heart honor.
So let us assume you win.
The natural line of play is to take the club finesse and should it hold play a heart from dummy with the intention of inserting the ten.

There is a snag:
East might put up an unsupported honor from Hx.
Assuming the club finesse is wrong you are now down. If you let it hold East will establish spades, while he still holds the club king.
If you take it you will loose too many heart tricks.
However ducking the first spade makes matters worse. Now you will also loose against Hxx if East puts it up, loosing a club a spade and 3 hearts tricks.
You are now down even though clubs could be 3-3

Let's have a look how likely it is that clubs are 3-3?
We know that spades are 1-5. This reduces the chance for clubs to break a bit to about 32%
How likely is that we can win a trick in hearts.
There are 8 ways you can distribute 3 cards (K,Q T) between East and West, of which only 2 (KT or QT with East) will allow you an additional heart trick single dummy. So chance is at best 25%, but it is even less since East has less vacant spaces than West. The actual probability is one in six.
When clubs are 3-3 the chance that East has Hx in hearts is roughly 17.5%

Against wordl-class defender who will always duck the first club finesse and find the play of putting ab their heart honor from Hx, the following line might be best:

Win the first spade. Play the club finesse. If it wins next cash the club ace.
If East is a world-class player, you will quite a few times drop a doubleton king of clubs.
Come back in spades and play your last club from hand.

I am not sure whether this line is really better than the natural line above.
I would not expect even a world class player to always find the play of an honor from Hx when a heart is led from dummy.
Robert Chance
2017-05-19 20:50:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by rhm
Win the first spade. Play the club finesse. If it wins next cash the club ace.
If East is a world-class player, you will quite a few times drop a doubleton king of clubs.
Come back in spades and play your last club from hand.
I am not sure whether this line is really better than the natural line above.
I would not expect even a world class player to always find the play of an honor from Hx when a heart is led from dummy.
My feeling is that this is probably the correct line. However, it loses when East has, for example, KJT98 Tx xx KTxx, as there is a club-spade squeeze available. The question is, how often would West lead a spade holding a singleton in that suit plus KQxxx in hearts?

On the actual hand, East held:

KJT98
K7
852
K73

Declarer won the first spade, took a club finesse (which held) and then led a heart to hand, on which East played the King.

There is still a line to make the contract - but it means playing East for this hand (or something similar). Duck the heart, win the spade return, cash the red-suit winners and throw East in with a spade to lead into the club tenace. I think this is anti-percentage at this stage, however, and it did not occur to declarer (who won the ace of hearts and took a second club finesse).

I think the real interest of the hand is analysing whether declarer can afford to duck at trick one. If East can be relied upon to lead a second spade, this works surprisingly well on the actual hand, as West has to find a discard from:

-
QT643
J764
T95

A diamond is surely out of the question. A heart discard, however, looks like a five-card suit, and declarer should now find the correct play when East inserts the king. And if West discards a club, declarer should find the play of the ace after the first club finesse holds (as this is guaranteed to reveal what is going on in the suit).

In other words, if you duck at trick one and East continues spades, there is an excellent pseudo-squeeze at trick 2.

The real risk with ducking trick one, of course, is if East finds the heart switch. A small heart is very unlikely to be a problem; you insert the nine and, if this loses to the ten, duck the heart continuation. The duck only costs if East is precisely 5413 distribution, with West holding the ten of hearts and East the king of clubs. Possible, but very unlikely.

However, what if East finds a switch to a top heart honour? I think the right play is to duck (this is essential on the actual hand). So, what is the chance of East finding a heart switch at trick two from, say, KJT98 KTxx xx Kx ?

I posed this hand (which was not the actual hand) as a defensive problem a few days ago to see if anyone could find the switch of the king of hearts. Needless to say, nobody did.

Thoughts welcome...
Douglas Newlands
2017-05-20 00:34:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by rhm
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
This is in deed an interesting problem, which requirea complex analysis.
To simplify this I will assume spades are 1-5 and the club king is with East, because any rational declarer will succeed if the club finesse works.
Ducking the spade is hard to evaluate.
East might possibly switch to an unsupported heart honor.
So let us assume you win.
The natural line of play is to take the club finesse and should it hold play a heart from dummy with the intention of inserting the ten.
East might put up an unsupported honor from Hx.
Aren't you overstating this? Isn't it auto to put up the K from Kx
since it is certainly falling on the next round?

doug
Player
2017-05-20 11:15:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Douglas Newlands
Post by rhm
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
This is in deed an interesting problem, which requirea complex analysis.
To simplify this I will assume spades are 1-5 and the club king is with East, because any rational declarer will succeed if the club finesse works.
Ducking the spade is hard to evaluate.
East might possibly switch to an unsupported heart honor.
So let us assume you win.
The natural line of play is to take the club finesse and should it hold play a heart from dummy with the intention of inserting the ten.
East might put up an unsupported honor from Hx.
Aren't you overstating this? Isn't it auto to put up the K from Kx
since it is certainly falling on the next round?
doug
Of course it is!

jogs
2017-05-16 13:35:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
No rational player would play the king from KT73.
rhm
2017-05-17 10:27:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by jogs
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
No rational player would play the king from KT73.
First I did not claim that.
However, you are wrong and experts will often find this play.
The king can hardly loose, when dummy has nothing in hearts and declarer will have a nasty guess when a second round of hearts is played.
jogs
2017-05-19 12:54:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by rhm
Post by jogs
Post by Robert Chance
N E S W
1C 1S 2NT P
3NT P P P
2NT is an old fashioned flat 11-12, although you did have a negative double available.
754
852
AKQ
AQJ6
AQ63
AJ9
T93
842
West leads the 2 of spades, and East plays the 8. Plan the play.
If you choose to duck the first trick, what do you do if East switches to the King of Hearts at trick 2?
No rational player would play the king from KT73.
First I did not claim that.
This is the play according to the OP.
Post by rhm
However, you are wrong and experts will often find this play.
While it is possible the HK may not hurt, it is unlikely
the HK is the only winning line. H3 is standard and would
yield better results in the long run.
Post by rhm
The king can hardly loose, when dummy has nothing in hearts and declarer will have a nasty guess when a second round of hearts is played.
The HK will often block the suit. Playing the H3 forces declarer
to guess the first time hearts are played.
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