Post by j***@gmail.comPairs/ all vulnerable
S 6
H J 9 7
D Q 7 5 4
C K Q 10 9 3
2D! - pass - 2H! - pass
2S - pass - pass - 2NT!
2D = Multi coloured = weak H or S; semiforcing C or D; NT 22-23 HP, balanced
2H = relay, less then 15 HCP
2S = 6-card S and 6-10 HCP
2NT = unsual NT, 5+-5+ C and D
Well, Your bid and why?
[I changed the asterisks in the original post into exclamation marks;
asterisks make the post hard to read on many Usenet clients because
they're interpreted as bolding.]
The first thing I notice is that the post doesn't say which of the
players I am. I'm assuming second seat as the hand shown doesn't fit the
bidding for first or fourth seat, and third seat would be able to see
the result of 2NT before choosing their bid.
If I am second seat, I start by asking whether 2H denies hearts. (It
normally does in response to a multi, with the standard response for
a weak hand with hearts being 2S, but maybe the opponents are playing
something weird.)
If 2H does deny hearts, then the only reasonable explanation seems to be
that first seat has both majors (or possibly that someone is psyching).
Something like 6-4 or 6-5 majors would be believable. (After all, we
have 19 minors between us, so the opponents must have 19 majors, and
third hand hasn't shown any interest in a pre-emptive raise.) In this
case, it's highly likely that someone can make a 4-level contract, so
I'd need to know more about partner's methods over 2D!, 2H!. If the pass
denies 15 HCP, for example, the opponents almost certainly have game in
a major, meaning that any bid by us will be a sacrifice. In that case, I
think I'd pick 4C; if partner continues over that it's probably correct,
and although 3C would be a better contract, 4C is less likely to have
one of the opponents balance and find their game.
If 2H denies hearts, and my partner would pass even with strong hands
(this seems like a dubious method due to the risk of not getting to
bid again, and is not an assumption I'd make unless I knew the partner),
I'd bid 3C and aim for game in clubs if my partner did anything to
indicate strength.
If 2H does not deny hearts, then most likely each opponent has a long
suit of their own (first seat with spades, third with hearts). Most
likely they have a decent number of points with what they think is a
complete misfit, whereas we have a weaker hand with more balanced
majors. (Again, though, assuming partner actually has their bid, we have
19 minors so they have 19 majors, and thus a 10-card major fit
somewhere; likely, though, it's very split between the hands, perhaps 7
spades in opener's hand and 3 in responder's.) In this case, it's
imperative to stop responder bidding 3 of a major. If we weren't
vulnerable, 3NT would be a plausible bid, but vulnerable we'd need four
tricks for it to be worthwhile and that rather relies on partner having
a stop in a major, which seems insufficiently likely. So 4C is likely
the best option.
It feels like there's a decent chance that partner is psyching here - if
the opponents really do have 19 majors between them and around half the
points, why have they not bid on further? - but I wouldn't risk taking
that into account, as fielding a psyche has a risk of getting you in
trouble even if you can figure it out from authorised information. If I
wasn't worried about that, I'd at least consider passing the 2NT on the
basis that I didn't believe it actually showed clubs and diamonds
(perhaps it was meant as natural and partner has forgotten the system),
and that if it is unusual, the pass at least deprives the opponents of
the chance of finding their major-suit fit. (We need two tricks in 2NT
for the penalty to be better than the opponents' major-suit game; down
6 is -600, 4H or 4S making is -620. Two tricks seem plausible here, and
if we're doubled we can run to 3C, with the bidding sequence having
discouraged the opponents from showing their majors.) If 2NT does happen
to be natural, it's probably worth the gamble playing there rather than
pulling to one of our minors (as partner is likely short in at least one
minor and our clubs are a source of tricks).
--
ais523