Post by a***@yahoo.co.ukMPs, Acol, weak NT
North
KT32
A9
AKJ64
A9
N E S W
1D 2C 2H 3C
3S 4C 4D P
?
Your bid.
Let's see what the players have shown here:
The opponents have shown lots of clubs. West has a weak hand and
probably four clubs; East's strength is unknown (but probably not that
strong, because there are only so many cards in the deck) and probably
with six clubs. (You could get more of an idea as to how strong East is
by asking West what the difference between 2C and 3C overcalls of 1D are
in their system, but it probably doesn't matter).
North has shown a reverse in diamonds and spades (16+ with decent
distribution, 4+ spades, more diamonds). North's distribution is pretty
much exactly what South is expecting, but the strength is a bit higher.
South's seen this strong bidding from North, and made the weakest
bid (South's disturbed 2-level reply showed the values for a 2-over-1
response to an opening bid, and thus for game opposite a reverse). So
I'd put South on something like 8-9 HCP here (my sources for Acol say
that hands in the 6-7 range should start with a pass or negative double
rather than showing a new suit at the two level), and is unlikely to
have 7 hearts (that'd have been worth mentioning them again or,
depending on the agreement about jump overcalls, jumping with them on
the first round). Is it possible for South to not have a genuine diamond
fit? With 3 spades and 2 diamonds South would preference to spades
(4-3 fits play better than probable 5-2 fits and majors are better
than minors). I guess it's possible that South is 2=6=2=3, but it
seems much more likely that South has genuine diamond support (and
wanted to try to find a heart fit as it's better-scoring than
diamonds). Something like 2=5=3=3 or 3=5=3=2, maybe even 3=5=4=1.
Because South has a good idea of our hand, their discouraging view of
the contract is likely correct. We do, however, have something like an
Ace more than we've shown so far (our hand is 19 HCP in mostly Aces and
Kings), and thus a raise seems viable.
We have to be careful though: this is matchpoints, after all. Is 3NT
likely to make on this hand? I'd say yes (given that we have the Ace
of Clubs and likely solidity diamonds), and the only reason that we
aren't there is that the opponents, annoyingly, went higher. (What's
the vulnerability, by the way? If it's white vs. red, our partner must
be very worried about clubs to not have doubled last round.) Are our
counterparts at other tables likely to be in 3NT? Given that you're
playing Acol and have a .uk email address, I'd guess you're in the UK,
in which case many of your counterparts are likely to be playing Benji
- which would open your hand at the two level, showing a ~19 HCP
balancedish hand in one or two bids (depending on the exact variant of
Benji in use). That's fairly likely (although not guaranteed!) to shut
out the opponents' counterparts' clubs. So we somehow have to beat the
likely 3NT at the other tables.
What will 3NT score? Probably 430 or 630 (depending on vulnerability),
maybe 400 or 600. Do we have two tricks in 5D that aren't available in
3NT? I don't think so; possibly you could ruff two spades in partner's
hand, but the hand shapes are likely to be too duplicated.
As such, our options for contracts that could score well here appear to
be 4D, 4NT, 6D, and 6NT (or a doubled contract played by the
opposition, but our partner thought that that would be a problem); 4NT
has the chance of tying with 3NT at other tables, 4D will score well if
3NT goes down, and of course bidding and making a slam scores well too.
4NT looks like the best contract here, but I don't think we can actually
reach it; an immediate 4NT bid would be interpreted as Blackwood in
diamonds, 4S as showing a 6-5 hand, and 4H as to play. So the options
come down to either hoping that 3NT is going down (in which case we
should just pass and make 4D; a plus score beats a minus score, after
all, and that's all matchpoints care about), or going for a slam.
Is slam viable? I think there's a chance. We have a hand with 19 HCP,
but worth more like 20. Partner's shown 8 HCP (although some people
woud play the 2H bid as a bit weaker). We have excellent controls, too
(we know from our own hand that we're not off two aces or AK of a suit!)
Could 3NT be going down? That can realistically only happen if the
opponents can knock out our Ace of Clubs, then get the lead back while
we're trying to establish another suit and run the remaining clubs. This
would require partner to have no high club honours (very likely on the
bidding, especially if the opponents are vulnerable), and for our suits
to fail to solidify. I'm finding it hard to construct a hand for partner
where that might happen; something like QJx QJxxx xx Qx would be minimum
or even below minimum for the 2H bid and 3NT could perhaps go down if
partner has that, but it seems fairly unlikely and contrived as hands go.
I think the better option, therefore, is to hope for a slam. Whatever
version of Blackwood 4NT is, it'll tell us about the Ace of Spades, and
if we have that, slam seems pretty likely (most likely we'll lose one
trick in a red suit, depending on where partner's honours are). So we
can start off with 4NT. If partner has the Ace in question, there's next
to no chance 3NT is going down, so we have to continue with 6D (I'd
imagine most partnerships won't be in slam, and we probably don't have
enough winners for 6NT). Without the Ace, we have the choice of stopping
in 5D, 6D, or (if it wouldn't be interpreted as a King ask) 5NT; I think
I'd still risk 6D, even though I wouldn't necessarily expect it to make,
as a plus score in 5D is likely to be insufficiently high, and if 5NT
makes there's a decent chance 6D will as well. So probably it's correct
to just bid 6D directly and not mess around with any sort of invite or
Ace-ask, and then hope that the opponents' cards are distributed well
enough to let it make.
Of course, there's also the possibility that our counterparts are trying
for a diamond slam that fails! We do have a lot of points, after all.
That might make 4D more of a viable option, but at least in my
experience, not many people go for slams at matchpoints even when they
should. So I typically assume that slams going down will only make a
small proportion of the traveller; a hand where most people are in slam
is a hand where most people will make slam.
--
ais523