Evidence-based 2022 Bermuda Bowl predictions

[Douglas]

About a week from now the 2022 Bermuda Bowl competition will begin in a town in Italy.

Based on a broad smattering of historical evidence, here are my current projections of the ultimate winners:

1st & 2nd: Hong Kong and Israel. Either can win. I predict they will be top of the field all the way from the beginning of the competition thru to the end.

3rd thru 5th: Italy, Netherlands & Switzerland. I give a slight edge to Netherlands. I expect each to reach these finishing positions about midway through the competition.

I think the best-placed USA team will do no better than 8th; more likely 10th, or even 12th.

Douglas

[Adam Wildavsky]

Post by Douglas
About a week from now the 2022 Bermuda Bowl competition will begin in a town in Italy.
1st & 2nd: Hong Kong and Israel. Either can win. I predict they will be top of the field all the way from the beginning of the competition thru to the end.
3rd thru 5th: Italy, Netherlands & Switzerland. I give a slight edge to Netherlands. I expect each to reach these finishing positions about midway through the competition.
I think the best-placed USA team will do no better than 8th; more likely 10th, or even 12th.

These were the medal winners, per http://championships.worldbridge.org/salsomaggiore22-files/bulletins/Bul_14.pdf :

Gold:
SWITZERLAND: Sjoert Brink, Bas Drijver, Piotr Gawryś, Michał Klukowski, Fernando Piedra, Pierre Zimmermann, Krzysztof Martens (coach)

Silver:
NETHERLANDS: Simon de Wijs, Bauke Muller, Berend van den Bos, Joris van Lankveld, Ricco van Prooijen, Louk Verhees Jr, Gert-Jan Ros (npc), Ton Bakkeren (coach)

Bronze (no third/fourth playoff was held):
NORWAY: Terje Aa, Christian Bakke, Boye Brogeland, Geir Helgemo, Tor Helness, Allan Livgård, Tolle Stabell (npc), Sten Bjertnes (coach)
and
USA 1: Eric Greco, Geoff Hampson, Ralph Katz, Bobby Levin, Nick Nickell, Steve Weinstein, Jill Levin (npc), Eric O. Kokish (coach)

The losing quarter-finalists, per http://db.worldbridge.org/Repository/tourn/salsomaggiore.22/microSite/Asp/knockoutphase.asp?qtournid=2204&qphase=QF , were England, Hungary, USA2, and Italy.

I see that Norway fielded three players from their 3rd place finish in 2019, three from their win in 2007, four from their fourth in 2003, three from their fourth in 2000, four from their third in 1997, and three from their second in 1993. There's a virtue to consistency!