A hand from last night at Banbury

[Dave Flower]

Match-points, partner dealt, opponents vulnerable:

A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7

1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?

Dave Flower

PS 2S would not be forcing

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

3D isn't totally satisfactory but what else is there? If partner bids 4C I won't like it but 4H should be playable. If partner bids 3H, I'll bid 3NT figuring that with nothing in spades or diamonds partner must have clubs.

Over 3S I'll decide whether I'm worth 4D.

[p***@infi.net]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

3D isn't totally satisfactory but what else is there? If partner bids 4C I won't like it but 4H should be playable. If partner bids 3H, I'll bid 3NT figuring that with nothing in spades or diamonds partner must have clubs.
Over 3S I'll decide whether I'm worth 4D.

I agree.

[Dave Flower]

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.

Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S

LHO led the DK, and the following hand came down:

Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2

A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7

Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)

Dave Flower

[Con Reeder, unhyphenated American]

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.
Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S
Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)

I think I'm in a pretty good contract with a normal lead. My main
worry is 7-1 diamonds in which case an overruff defeats me.

The problem with playing for 6-2 diamonds is I will have a chancy
hand re-entry even if the low ruff wins and I can cash the SQ.

So I like winning DA, ruffing D with SQ, two rounds of hearts pitching
a club, then a spade to the AK. If the SJ doesn't drop, I force out
the DQ and take my 10 tricks.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.
Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S
Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)

I think I'm in a pretty good contract with a normal lead. My main
worry is 7-1 diamonds in which case an overruff defeats me.
The problem with playing for 6-2 diamonds is I will have a chancy
hand re-entry even if the low ruff wins and I can cash the SQ.
So I like winning DA, ruffing D with SQ, two rounds of hearts pitching
a club, then a spade to the AK. If the SJ doesn't drop, I force out
the DQ and take my 10 tricks.

That works if the trumps break. I'm worried about a singleton diamond too, but I'm also worried about a singleton spade. An interesting ruse is

dJ at trick 2. Will LHO duck? I don't see how. Assume cover & ruff high.
Now, especially if RHO shows out, finesse the trump. If LHO follows small, even with a singleton, I'm playing for uptricks. If LHO shows out I still have chances.

[Con Reeder, unhyphenated American]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.
Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S
Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)

I think I'm in a pretty good contract with a normal lead. My main
worry is 7-1 diamonds in which case an overruff defeats me.
The problem with playing for 6-2 diamonds is I will have a chancy
hand re-entry even if the low ruff wins and I can cash the SQ.
So I like winning DA, ruffing D with SQ, two rounds of hearts pitching
a club, then a spade to the AK. If the SJ doesn't drop, I force out
the DQ and take my 10 tricks.

That works if the trumps break. I'm worried about a singleton diamond too, but I'm also worried about a singleton spade. An interesting ruse is
dJ at trick 2. Will LHO duck? I don't see how. Assume cover & ruff
high. Now, especially if RHO shows out, finesse the trump. If LHO
follows small, even with a singleton, I'm playing for uptricks. If LHO
shows out I still have chances.

Then if W wins the SJ then you can be down with two clubs and a
diamond ruff. It does take an underlead of West's (presumed)
A or K of clubs, but a good defender will do it.

Your line wins on 4-1 spades (with no stiff J). I thought about
this as well, but decided that was not as likely as 3-2 spades plus
the stiff DJ. I might make that decision if diamonds were 7-1.

If spades are 4-1 I can still play for the scissors coup with three
rounds of hearts, hoping for 5-2 hearts or QT with east, although that
becomes somewhat less likely of course.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.
Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S
Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)

I think I'm in a pretty good contract with a normal lead. My main
worry is 7-1 diamonds in which case an overruff defeats me.
The problem with playing for 6-2 diamonds is I will have a chancy
hand re-entry even if the low ruff wins and I can cash the SQ.
So I like winning DA, ruffing D with SQ, two rounds of hearts pitching
a club, then a spade to the AK. If the SJ doesn't drop, I force out
the DQ and take my 10 tricks.

That works if the trumps break. I'm worried about a singleton diamond too, but I'm also worried about a singleton spade. An interesting ruse is
dJ at trick 2. Will LHO duck? I don't see how. Assume cover & ruff
high. Now, especially if RHO shows out, finesse the trump. If LHO
follows small, even with a singleton, I'm playing for uptricks. If LHO
shows out I still have chances.

Then if W wins the SJ then you can be down with two clubs and a
diamond ruff. It does take an underlead of West's (presumed)
A or K of clubs, but a good defender will do it.

I guess you mean East must underlead. It may be that declarer's better line is to discard a club before finessing the spade in which case the defense would need to find 2 ruffs and a 1 club to beat the hand. I didn't go into details when the finesse loses because I feel the chance of making if my trump finesse loses is just vigorish.

My main point is that the spade finesse, a 2:1 favorite, may be a better place to hand your hat than the 55% or so for a 3-2 spade break. I say "may be" because the comparison isn't quite that simple.

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American
Your line wins on 4-1 spades (with no stiff J). I thought about
this as well, but decided that was not as likely as 3-2 spades plus
the stiff DJ. I might make that decision if diamonds were 7-1.
If spades are 4-1 I can still play for the scissors coup with three
rounds of hearts, hoping for 5-2 hearts or QT with east, although that
becomes somewhat less likely of course.

Yes, RHO 4513 is possible.

[Con Reeder, unhyphenated American]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.
Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S
Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)

I think I'm in a pretty good contract with a normal lead. My main
worry is 7-1 diamonds in which case an overruff defeats me.
The problem with playing for 6-2 diamonds is I will have a chancy
hand re-entry even if the low ruff wins and I can cash the SQ.
So I like winning DA, ruffing D with SQ, two rounds of hearts pitching
a club, then a spade to the AK. If the SJ doesn't drop, I force out
the DQ and take my 10 tricks.

That works if the trumps break. I'm worried about a singleton diamond too, but I'm also worried about a singleton spade. An interesting ruse is
dJ at trick 2. Will LHO duck? I don't see how. Assume cover & ruff
high. Now, especially if RHO shows out, finesse the trump. If LHO
follows small, even with a singleton, I'm playing for uptricks. If LHO
shows out I still have chances.

Then if W wins the SJ then you can be down with two clubs and a
diamond ruff. It does take an underlead of West's (presumed)
A or K of clubs, but a good defender will do it.

I guess you mean East must underlead. It may be that declarer's better line is to discard a club before finessing the spade in which case the defense would need to find 2 ruffs and a 1 club to beat the hand. I didn't go into details when the finesse loses because I feel the chance of making if my trump finesse loses is just vigorish.
My main point is that the spade finesse, a 2:1 favorite, may be a better place to hand your hat than the 55% or so for a 3-2 spade break. I say "may be" because the comparison isn't quite that simple.

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American
Your line wins on 4-1 spades (with no stiff J). I thought about
this as well, but decided that was not as likely as 3-2 spades plus
the stiff DJ. I might make that decision if diamonds were 7-1.
If spades are 4-1 I can still play for the scissors coup with three
rounds of hearts, hoping for 5-2 hearts or QT with east, although that
becomes somewhat less likely of course.

Yes, RHO 4513 is possible.

Not to mention QTxx and 4414. Those two chances along with the chance
of 3-2 and stiff J make the two lines competitive. If diamonds are 6-2
I like my line quite a bit better. If they are 7-1 I think the two lines
are very close.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.
Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S
Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)

I think I'm in a pretty good contract with a normal lead. My main
worry is 7-1 diamonds in which case an overruff defeats me.
The problem with playing for 6-2 diamonds is I will have a chancy
hand re-entry even if the low ruff wins and I can cash the SQ.
So I like winning DA, ruffing D with SQ, two rounds of hearts pitching
a club, then a spade to the AK. If the SJ doesn't drop, I force out
the DQ and take my 10 tricks.

That works if the trumps break. I'm worried about a singleton diamond too, but I'm also worried about a singleton spade. An interesting ruse is
dJ at trick 2. Will LHO duck? I don't see how. Assume cover & ruff
high. Now, especially if RHO shows out, finesse the trump. If LHO
follows small, even with a singleton, I'm playing for uptricks. If LHO
shows out I still have chances.

Then if W wins the SJ then you can be down with two clubs and a
diamond ruff. It does take an underlead of West's (presumed)
A or K of clubs, but a good defender will do it.

I guess you mean East must underlead. It may be that declarer's better line is to discard a club before finessing the spade in which case the defense would need to find 2 ruffs and a 1 club to beat the hand. I didn't go into details when the finesse loses because I feel the chance of making if my trump finesse loses is just vigorish.
My main point is that the spade finesse, a 2:1 favorite, may be a better place to hang your hat than the 55% or so for a 3-2 spade break. I say "may be" because the comparison isn't quite that simple.

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American
Your line wins on 4-1 spades (with no stiff J). I thought about
this as well, but decided that was not as likely as 3-2 spades plus
the stiff DJ. I might make that decision if diamonds were 7-1.
If spades are 4-1 I can still play for the scissors coup with three
rounds of hearts, hoping for 5-2 hearts or QT with east, although that
becomes somewhat less likely of course.

Yes, RHO 4513 is possible.

Not to mention QTxx and 4414.

Granted. I overlooked "or" in your previous post.

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American
Those two chances

are not chopped liver. They amount to 40+% (of the sJxxx hands) even if diamonds are 6-2.

Post by Con Reeder, unhyphenated American
along with the chance
of 3-2 and stiff J make the two lines competitive. If diamonds are 6-2
I like my line quite a bit better. If they are 7-1 I think the two lines
are very close.

Now I make your line around 73% whichever diamond break which is 5-10% better than I think I estimated for my line (probably when 7-1 diamonds) a few days ago. The inestimable chance of a misdefense when my finesse loses trims that a bit, probably not altogether.

[Dave Flower]

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

Well the only votes are for 3D, as the least bad bid.
Well, I did bid 3D, partner bid 3S, and I raised to 4S
Q 5
A K 9 5 3
8
Q 6 5 3 2
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
Plan the play (RHO follows with D5 at trick 1)
Dave Flower

Posters may be amused by what happened at the table.

I won the opening lead and played four rounds of trumps (they were 3-2), hoping to put pressure on LHO.

I followed with HAK (discarding a club) and a heart ruff. LHO had kept one too few diamonds, so I scored the D2 at trick 13.

Dave Flower

[Derek Turner]

Post by Dave Flower
A K 10 9 4 2
J
A J 10 2
9 7
1H pass 1S 2D
2H pass ?
Dave Flower
PS 2S would not be forcing

With the lead coming up to me and therefore a double-stop I might punt 3NT.

[Player]

Yes, your robust C stopper argues for 3NT as well.

[Derek Turner]

Post by Player
Yes, your robust C stopper argues for 3NT as well.

What part of "punt" did you not understand?