A875 K9874 4 754

[p***@infi.net]

Khokan Bagchi posted this on Bridgewinners:
https://bridgewinners.com/article/view/bidding-problem-2-ab5zzx79gw/?cj=621916#c621916

Dealer North, none vul, IMPs
.......P....P...1NT 15-17
3D..X....P....4D natural preempt, negative double, pick-a-major
P.....?

A875
K9874
4
754

The vote was 49-0 for 4!H; he bid 4!S at the table and found partner with:

KQJx
AQ10x
xx
Kxx

So 4!S (N) made, though a club lead would've beat it; 4!H had no play with the club Ace over the KIng. My instinct is that with this few hcp, the 9-card fit will make at least as often as the 4-4 and will be safer. I've long felt you needed to be close to slam for the 4-4 fit to be a better bet, but perhaps I've underestimated the value on hands such as this.

How about a single dummy sim? Double dummy looks useless since the defense would defeat even 4S (S) by underleading in diamonds.

If Kurt or anyone can help here, thanks!

[f***@googlemail.com]

Post by p***@infi.net
https://bridgewinners.com/article/view/bidding-problem-2-ab5zzx79gw/?cj=621916#c621916
Dealer North, none vul, IMPs
.......P....P...1NT 15-17
3D..X....P....4D natural preempt, negative double, pick-a-major
P.....?
A875
K9874
4
754
KQJx
AQ10x
xx
Kxx
So 4!S (N) made, though a club lead would've beat it; 4!H had no play with the club Ace over the KIng. My instinct is that with this few hcp, the 9-card fit will make at least as often as the 4-4 and will be safer. I've long felt you needed to be close to slam for the 4-4 fit to be a better bet, but perhaps I've underestimated the value on hands such as this.
How about a single dummy sim? Double dummy looks useless since the defense would defeat even 4S (S) by underleading in diamonds.
If Kurt or anyone can help here, thanks!

It's a bit of an artificial problem because it assumes insane opponents.
The result at both tables in our match was 5Dx making the other way, which I think was the modal result across the field. How fourth seat failed to raise diamonds with AKxx support and a side suit singleton will have to remain a puzzle.

[p***@infi.net]

Post by f***@googlemail.com

Post by p***@infi.net
https://bridgewinners.com/article/view/bidding-problem-2-ab5zzx79gw/?cj=621916#c621916
Dealer North, none vul, IMPs
.......P....P...1NT 15-17
3D..X....P....4D natural preempt, negative double, pick-a-major
P.....?
A875
K9874
4
754
KQJx
AQ10x
xx
Kxx
So 4!S (N) made, though a club lead would've beat it; 4!H had no play with the club Ace over the KIng. My instinct is that with this few hcp, the 9-card fit will make at least as often as the 4-4 and will be safer. I've long felt you needed to be close to slam for the 4-4 fit to be a better bet, but perhaps I've underestimated the value on hands such as this.
How about a single dummy sim? Double dummy looks useless since the defense would defeat even 4S (S) by underleading in diamonds.
If Kurt or anyone can help here, thanks!

It's a bit of an artificial problem because it assumes insane opponents.
The result at both tables in our match was 5Dx making the other way, which I think was the modal result across the field. How fourth seat failed to raise diamonds with AKxx support and a side suit singleton will have to remain a puzzle.

But just focusing on responder's hand, what strain is best? South might have KQJx Q10xx Axx Kx. Against 4S East might smell a heart ruff holding Axx, or simply find the killing club switch after a routine diamond lead (but in that case 4H has no play.)

[f***@googlemail.com]

Post by p***@infi.net

Post by f***@googlemail.com

Post by p***@infi.net
https://bridgewinners.com/article/view/bidding-problem-2-ab5zzx79gw/?cj=621916#c621916
Dealer North, none vul, IMPs
.......P....P...1NT 15-17
3D..X....P....4D natural preempt, negative double, pick-a-major
P.....?
A875
K9874
4
754
KQJx
AQ10x
xx
Kxx
So 4!S (N) made, though a club lead would've beat it; 4!H had no play with the club Ace over the KIng. My instinct is that with this few hcp, the 9-card fit will make at least as often as the 4-4 and will be safer. I've long felt you needed to be close to slam for the 4-4 fit to be a better bet, but perhaps I've underestimated the value on hands such as this.
How about a single dummy sim? Double dummy looks useless since the defense would defeat even 4S (S) by underleading in diamonds.
If Kurt or anyone can help here, thanks!

It's a bit of an artificial problem because it assumes insane opponents.
The result at both tables in our match was 5Dx making the other way, which I think was the modal result across the field. How fourth seat failed to raise diamonds with AKxx support and a side suit singleton will have to remain a puzzle.

But just focusing on responder's hand, what strain is best? South might have KQJx Q10xx Axx Kx. Against 4S East might smell a heart ruff holding Axx, or simply find the killing club switch after a routine diamond lead (but in that case 4H has no play.)

The actual hand was slightly odd in that even though the opening leader could lead a top diamonds, which was standing up, they couldn't cash 3 clubs because the overcaller had AQJ

There is an argument as opener looking at Kxx in clubs that he shouldn't bid 4D but should pick a suit himself to protect the CK.

[Lorne]

Post by p***@infi.net
https://bridgewinners.com/article/view/bidding-problem-2-ab5zzx79gw/?cj=621916#c621916
Dealer North, none vul, IMPs
.......P....P...1NT 15-17
3D..X....P....4D natural preempt, negative double, pick-a-major
P.....?
A875
K9874
4
754
KQJx
AQ10x
xx
Kxx
So 4!S (N) made, though a club lead would've beat it; 4!H had no play with the club Ace over the KIng. My instinct is that with this few hcp, the 9-card fit will make at least as often as the 4-4 and will be safer. I've long felt you needed to be close to slam for the 4-4 fit to be a better bet, but perhaps I've underestimated the value on hands such as this.
How about a single dummy sim? Double dummy looks useless since the defense would defeat even 4S (S) by underleading in diamonds.
If Kurt or anyone can help here, thanks!

I ran a DD simulation:
South=15-17 pts, 4-4 majors, 2-5 minors.
West standard NV 3D opener.
North fixed as above.
No constraint on East.

Over 1,000 deals 4H made 628 times, 4S made 499 times.
Ave tricks 9.8 in hearts, 9.5 in spades.

So the voters were right and the bidder was lucky.