Two horse race

[Dave Flower]

This hand came up at Banbury on Thursday:

Matchpoints, both vul, dealer S:

1S pass 2D pass
2S pass 4S all pass

Q 10 x
K 10 x
A K J x
Q J x

A J 9 x x x x
x x
Q x
K x

Opening lead, middling diamond (could be from almost any holding)

Do you:
1) Win DQ, cash SA, switch back to diamonds planning to discard hearts
or
2) Win in dummy, and finesse spades

Dave Flower

PS I selected line 1; the SJ was singleton onside, so either line would have delivered 12 tricks

[p***@infi.net]

Post by Dave Flower
1S pass 2D pass
2S pass 4S all pass
Q 10 x
K 10 x
A K J x
Q J x
A J 9 x x x x
x x
Q x
K x
Opening lead, middling diamond (could be from almost any holding)
1) Win DQ, cash SA, switch back to diamonds planning to discard hearts
or
2) Win in dummy, and finesse spades
Dave Flower
PS I selected line 1; the SJ was singleton onside, so either line would have delivered 12 tricks

Without looking at your choices, I selected line 1; pretty good chance to drop the King or to dump hearts before they can ruff in. I assume you meant the spade King was singleton onside, since you have the Jack.

[p***@infi.net]

Post by Dave Flower
1S pass 2D pass
2S pass 4S all pass
Q 10 x
K 10 x
A K J x
Q J x
A J 9 x x x x
x x
Q x
K x
Opening lead, middling diamond (could be from almost any holding)
1) Win DQ, cash SA, switch back to diamonds planning to discard hearts
or
2) Win in dummy, and finesse spades
Dave Flower
PS I selected line 1; the SJ was singleton onside, so either line would have delivered 12 tricks

OK, my more in-depth analysis: you should be OK if West has the Ace of hearts. Assuming that is offside, the finesse wins 50% of the time, while the drop wins the two stiff Kings (about 25%) and about 80% of the rest of the time -- diamonds 4-3 or the player with one or more trumps has 5+ diamonds. I don't think a trump void makes much difference other than to tilt the odds somewhat in favor of the long trump hand having two or fewer diamonds. So line 1 looks much better.

[Robert Chance]

On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:09:37 UTC+1, Dave Flower wrote:

A diamond is a rather bizarre lead on this auction. It suggests that W does not fancy either of the unbid suits (maybe holding the ace in both suits?) or is short in diamonds. Either way, playing on diamonds seems to me to be less of a percentage play than the basic odds would suggest.

At matchpoints, I play the queen of spades and run it unless E plays the king.

At IMPs, I would lead the queen of spades and play the ace on it, then play on diamonds discarding hearts.

In both matchpoints and IMPs, I might change my mind if E shows out on the first spade. If East's discard screams for a heart switch, I go up with the ace and play on diamonds. If East's discard does not scream for a heart switch, I run the queen of spades and let W figure out what to do.