4H play problem

[Steve Willner]

Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.

NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85

K86
QJ952
873
A4

W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap

Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

[Travis Crump]

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

The more I stare at it, the more I think diamonds are 2-2. I'll win the
first club, play a diamond over and lead a trump to a quack. Win the SA
and lead another trump to the remaining quack. If LHO has a stiff
diamond, why didn't they lead it. If RHO has a stiff diamond, why didn't
they double 1D? Clubs seem to be 4-5.

Travis

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Travis Crump

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

The more I stare at it, the more I think diamonds are 2-2. I'll win the
first club, play a diamond over and lead a trump to a quack. Win the SA
and lead another trump to the remaining quack. If LHO has a stiff
diamond, why didn't they lead it. If RHO has a stiff diamond, why didn't
they double 1D? Clubs seem to be 4-5.
Travis

Is there an edge for clubs 4=5 vs 5=4 based on 3 being the 2nd lowest spot? Otherwise I don't get why you write 4-5 instead of 5-4 (although nominally they mean the same thing).

"more ... diamonds are 2-2" -- I buy that. RHO not doubling doesn't mean a lot, but it means something. Maybe the diamond break is elevated from the nominal 50-ish% to 70%.

As against that, crossing in spades needs spades 5-3 or better and lots of the 3=5 breaks succumb to a trump promotion. As an at-the-table calculation there are 256 spade breaks of which 70 are 4-4, 48 are 5=3 and lets say 30 are survivable 3=5 -- maybe 60%.

There's lots of room for argument or refinement in the above but for now I buy the diamond line.

[Travis Crump]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Travis Crump

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

The more I stare at it, the more I think diamonds are 2-2. I'll win the
first club, play a diamond over and lead a trump to a quack. Win the SA
and lead another trump to the remaining quack. If LHO has a stiff
diamond, why didn't they lead it. If RHO has a stiff diamond, why didn't
they double 1D? Clubs seem to be 4-5.
Travis

Is there an edge for clubs 4=5 vs 5=4 based on 3 being the 2nd lowest spot? Otherwise I don't get why you write 4-5 instead of 5-4 (although nominally they mean the same thing).

I assume the 2C bidder has 5.

Post by Charles Brenner
"more ... diamonds are 2-2" -- I buy that. RHO not doubling doesn't mean a lot, but it means something. Maybe the diamond break is elevated from the nominal 50-ish% to 70%.
As against that, crossing in spades needs spades 5-3 or better and lots of the 3=5 breaks succumb to a trump promotion. As an at-the-table calculation there are 256 spade breaks of which 70 are 4-4, 48 are 5=3 and lets say 30 are survivable 3=5 -- maybe 60%.
There's lots of room for argument or refinement in the above but for now I buy the diamond line.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Travis Crump

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Travis Crump

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

The more I stare at it, the more I think diamonds are 2-2. I'll win the
first club, play a diamond over and lead a trump to a quack. Win the SA
and lead another trump to the remaining quack. If LHO has a stiff
diamond, why didn't they lead it. If RHO has a stiff diamond, why didn't
they double 1D? Clubs seem to be 4-5.
Travis

Is there an edge for clubs 4=5 vs 5=4 based on 3 being the 2nd lowest spot? Otherwise I don't get why you write 4-5 instead of 5-4 (although nominally they mean the same thing).

I assume the 2C bidder has 5.

I did overlook the opp's bidding, which I agree is hard to justify unless clubs are 45. But that said, how can LHO possibly have bid 4C without a singleton or void? Nobody bids 4C on QJxx, Kxx, xx, Jxxx or less. With Qxxxxx, x, xx, Jxxx, or Qxxxx, x, xxx, Jxxx some might. And while you and I would always lead a singleton diamond, our opponent may not have learned Garozzo's rule.

It's also possible that LHO is void in diamonds. There's no Garozzo rule that you lead a void. Granted, we can't legitimately make if this is the lie.

The common thread is spade length with LHO, likely 10 black cards. That suggests starting trumps with an honor from hand and later running the 8 from dummy.

[Dave Flower]

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

Duck the opening lead to break communication between the opponent's hands, play a spade to the ace and lead a trump to the queen.
If LHO wins, win the spade K, ruff a spade, and lead a second trump . . .

Dave Flower

[Douglas Newlands]

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

Duck the opening lead to break communication between the opponent's hands,

What about, don't duck the club in case East finds a diamond switch
for a second round ruff of the suit.

Post by Dave Flower
play a spade to the ace and lead a trump to the queen.
If LHO wins, win the spade K, ruff a spade, and lead a second trump . . .

What's with the ellipsis? It's normal to finesse in the Southern
hemisphere. I wasn't aware it was different in the Northern one.

doug

[Travis Crump]

Post by Douglas Newlands

Post by Dave Flower

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

Duck the opening lead to break communication between the opponent's hands,

What about, don't duck the club in case East finds a diamond switch
for a second round ruff of the suit.

Post by Dave Flower
play a spade to the ace and lead a trump to the queen.
If LHO wins, win the spade K, ruff a spade, and lead a second trump . . .

What's with the ellipsis? It's normal to finesse in the Southern
hemisphere. I wasn't aware it was different in the Northern one.
doug

They win and one of them plays the diamond jack putting the lead in dummy:

--
--
AKT94
--

[Lorne Anderson]

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

Missing 17 points and trick 1 putting the club J with W suggests the 2C
bidder has at least 1 of the Heart honours and the clubs are 4W-5E and
no spade bids suggests that suit is 4-4.

I win trick 1, cross to the spade and play trump to J unless E rises.

If that loses I next cross with a D and play another H to the Q. If
trumps are 4-1 the too bad. If E has a singleton D they will not get
ruff without double dummy play in trumps and in any case would not have
switched to spades. W can't have a singleton without 5 spades, unlikely
given the 4C bid.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Lorne Anderson

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

Missing 17 points and trick 1 putting the club J with W suggests the 2C
bidder has at least 1 of the Heart honours and the clubs are 4W-5E and
no spade bids suggests that suit is 4-4.

East needs the heart A and club KQxxx to have anything like a 2C bid. That leaves West with at most the heart K and a smattering for bidding 4C -- impossible unless West has long spades and bid 4C preemptively. I can't envision any other construction that remotely explains the bidding.

[Player]

Win the first club. Ducking is poor as it allows a potentially damaging shift. Cross to the s and lead a h. When I next get in ruff a s and lead another h.

[Lorne Anderson]

Post by Player
Win the first club. Ducking is poor as it allows a potentially
damaging shift. Cross to the s and lead a h. When I next get in ruff
a s and lead another h.

Are you sure about the spade ruff ? It means you have no entry to hand
to draw the last trump which is why I chose the small risk of a diamond
ruff. I know the oppo can force a spade ruff but if they do not you can
draw the last trump and claim.

[Player]

Good point Lorne. I agree that a D to dummy is better.

[Steve Willner]

Post by Player
Win the first club. Ducking is poor as it allows a potentially
damaging shift. Cross to the s and lead a h. When I next get in ruff
a s and lead another h.

Several people have suggested similar lines, but the above was most
succinct. I'm not sure what the potentially damaging shift might be,
though.

Anyway, some people noticed -- but I think not everyone appreciated --
that dummy might end up on lead at trick 8 with only diamonds. That
still could make if someone is 3-3 (or maybe 3-4) in the red suits, but
how likely is that?

All in all, there seem to be three possible lines:
1. as above but using D-A, not a spade ruff, as the second dummy entry.
The hope is for misdefense (red suit lead, not a spade, at trick 7) or
red suit luck.

2. the counter-intuitive line of using diamonds for both dummy entries.
This works if diamonds are 2-2 or there's no diamond ruff with a spot
card. There may be other possibilities.

3. finesse against H-T on the first round of trumps, probably using a
spade entry.

Which line is best probably depends on what you infer from the bidding.
This was not a high-level game nor were opponents a regular partnership,
so inferences are cloudier than usual.

[Steve Willner]

Post by Steve Willner
1. as above but using D-A, not a spade ruff, as the second dummy entry.
The hope is for misdefense (red suit lead, not a spade, at trick 7) or
red suit luck.

One other downside to this line is that opponents can arrange a diamond
ruff if one of them is 3=1 in the red suits and partner has a H honor.

Post by Steve Willner
2. the counter-intuitive line of using diamonds for both dummy entries.
This works if diamonds are 2-2 or there's no diamond ruff with a spot
card. There may be other possibilities.
3. finesse against H-T on the first round of trumps, probably using a
spade entry.
Which line is best probably depends on what you infer from the bidding.

Nobody commented further, so here is the full deal FWIW:
A9
876
AKQT94
85
Q7543 JT2
KT A43
62 J5
JT73 KQ962
K86
QJ952
873
A4
I chose line 3 because I expected West to have a singleton diamond for
the 4C bid. In retrospect, I probably should have given more weight to
the absence of a diamond lead. I don't agree with either opponent's
bidding, but that's their concern, not mine.

[Travis Crump]

Post by Steve Willner

Post by Steve Willner
1. as above but using D-A, not a spade ruff, as the second dummy entry.
The hope is for misdefense (red suit lead, not a spade, at trick 7) or
red suit luck.

One other downside to this line is that opponents can arrange a diamond
ruff if one of them is 3=1 in the red suits and partner has a H honor.

Post by Steve Willner
2. the counter-intuitive line of using diamonds for both dummy entries.
This works if diamonds are 2-2 or there's no diamond ruff with a spot
card. There may be other possibilities.
3. finesse against H-T on the first round of trumps, probably using a
spade entry.
Which line is best probably depends on what you infer from the bidding.

A9
876
AKQT94
85
Q7543 JT2
KT A43
62 J5
JT73 KQ962
K86
QJ952
873
A4
I chose line 3 because I expected West to have a singleton diamond for
the 4C bid. In retrospect, I probably should have given more weight to
the absence of a diamond lead. I don't agree with either opponent's
bidding, but that's their concern, not mine.

If the plan is to finesse the HT, I think I'd start by just leading a
heart honor out of South at trick 2. Here west will win the K and you
will still have a guess later, but it must be better than crossing to
immediately run the 8.

[Steve Willner]

Post by Travis Crump
If the plan is to finesse the HT, I think I'd start by just leading a
heart honor out of South at trick 2.

I considered that but couldn't think of any opponents' holdings it would
help against. Does anyone see any? Leading an honor from hand costs an
extra undertrick against stiff honor but, as Travis wrote, postpones the
eventual guess.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Steve Willner
Another from the individual. I can't tell whether this was a misguess
or a blunder.
NS vul, dealer N
A9
876
AKQT94
85
K86
QJ952
873
A4
W N E S
-- 1D 2C 2H
4C 4H ap
Criticize the auction if you like, but the play's the thing. Lead is
C-3, and RHO plays C-Q. Standard leads and carding. Take it from
there. When opponents gain the lead, they will play clubs if dummy has
one left or spades if dummy is out of clubs.

That's a hint that trumps are 3-2. If LHO is 6124 then I think always pounding clubs (and ducking the 2nd round of trumps) is a successful defense.

If LHO is 7114 though, I can survive that. Also note that if LHO's singleton heart is the K, the lack of a singleton diamond lead makes sense. The play would go
win club
hQ loses to the K
If club, club, take the force in hand. Cross in diamonds, run the h8.
Run diamonds through RHO who is down to A10 of trumps in front of our J9. If RHO discards a spade on the 4th diamond so do we and all is well. If RHO ruffs the 4th diamond, we overruff and can get back to dummy via the spade A.