Overcall with a Four-Card Suit

[P***@yahoo.com]

Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.

Here's an example from Mike Lawrence's Complete Book on Overcalls:

S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54

Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.

The Bridge Winners poll had this hand (at unfavorable vulnerability):

S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76

and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.

Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

[John Hall]

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that
75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally
divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

That AQ43 is a weaker suit than KQT9. On the rare occasions when you
decide that it's best to overcall in a four-card suit, the suit needs to
be robust, since partner will assume that you have five. Imagine that
partner has J65 opposite both suits, and you can see the difference.

[P***@yahoo.com]

Post by John Hall

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that
75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally
divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

That AQ43 is a weaker suit than KQT9. On the rare occasions when you
decide that it's best to overcall in a four-card suit, the suit needs to
be robust, since partner will assume that you have five. Imagine that
partner has J65 opposite both suits, and you can see the difference.
--
John Hall
"Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin"
attributed to Sir Josiah Stamp,
a former director of the Bank of England

Thanks, John. That could be it and I wasn't thinking it was weaker, but you're right.

[Player]

I would overall 1S with both. Many BW posters are conservative reared on sound openinhe and overalls.

[Lorne Anderson]

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

1. If partner ends up onlead you are nearly certain a spade is right on
hand 1 but have no idea what the best lead is on hand 2.
2. If the suit breaks badly you are much more likely toget doubled with
the second holding which will only make 1 trump trick but hand 2 will
always make at lest one more trump trick so is safer when it is a mistake.

[[e-mail]]

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Lawrence's rationale, at least in its 1st edition was

1. The finesse through opener's suit is odds-on.

2. The 4-card in opener's suit increases the chance that advancer has 3+ in your suit.

3. On the assumption that responder has the 4-trump hand, you will often be able to use opener's suit to draw trumps. (When in a 4-3 fit, you have to be willing to pay off when the short-trump defender is the guy short in the side suit.)

In addition, and this is me, not Lawrence, fifteen years of passing with 14 hcp convinced me that taking risks is more fun.

Carl

[p***@infi.net]

Post by ***@verizon.net

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Lawrence's rationale, at least in its 1st edition was
1. The finesse through opener's suit is odds-on.
2. The 4-card in opener's suit increases the chance that advancer has 3+ in your suit.
3. On the assumption that responder has the 4-trump hand, you will often be able to use opener's suit to draw trumps. (When in a 4-3 fit, you have to be willing to pay off when the short-trump defender is the guy short in the side suit.)
In addition, and this is me, not Lawrence, fifteen years of passing with 14 hcp convinced me that taking risks is more fun.
Carl

Point 2 is mathematically false; it is surprising that Lawrence got this wrong and has never retracted it. However, the fact that an opponent opens anything but 1C actually does significantly increase the chance of a fit in any four+ card suit you have. A priori, the chance of a fit in a four-card suit is about 1/3rd, versus better than 50% for a five card suit; after an opening bid on your right, it climbs to nearly half for the four card suit (and much better for the five-bagger.). Length in their suit does not affect this calculation, but it does dramatically reduce the odds of having a fit in a different suit. I set up a spreadsheet to disprove Lawrence's claim and was startled at these results. Having low card length in opener's suit does increase the odds of being able to use dummy's trumps for ruffs, though you are apt to still be left with losers in the suit.

[[e-mail]]

Post by p***@infi.net

Post by ***@verizon.net

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Lawrence's rationale, at least in its 1st edition was
1. The finesse through opener's suit is odds-on.
2. The 4-card in opener's suit increases the chance that advancer has 3+ in your suit.
3. On the assumption that responder has the 4-trump hand, you will often be able to use opener's suit to draw trumps. (When in a 4-3 fit, you have to be willing to pay off when the short-trump defender is the guy short in the side suit.)
In addition, and this is me, not Lawrence, fifteen years of passing with 14 hcp convinced me that taking risks is more fun.
Carl

Point 2 is mathematically false; it is surprising that Lawrence got this wrong and has never retracted it. However, the fact that an opponent opens anything but 1C actually does significantly increase the chance of a fit in any four+ card suit you have. A priori, the chance of a fit in a four-card suit is about 1/3rd, versus better than 50% for a five card suit; after an opening bid on your right, it climbs to nearly half for the four card suit (and much better for the five-bagger.). Length in their suit does not affect this calculation, but it does dramatically reduce the odds of having a fit in a different suit. I set up a spreadsheet to disprove Lawrence's claim and was startled at these results. Having low card length in opener's suit does increase the odds of being able to use dummy's trumps for ruffs, though you are apt to still be left with losers in the suit.

Playing in a 4-3, you cash winners, not avoid losers.

Carl

[Fred.]

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Edgar Kaplan published* a simple metric called "trump value" for evaluating overcall suits: 1 point for each card over four in the suit plus 1 point
for each card touching or nearly touching 2 higher honors.

This is a rough estimate of the number of additional tricks the
suit will take if named as trump and also is a rough estimate
of the level at which an overcall in the suit becomes somewhat
risky.

On this metric KQT9 counts as 2 and should be safe for an overcall
at the 1-level while AQxx counts as 0 and should be quite risky.
Whether or not a hand should overcall at the level of risk depends
on partnership methods, style, and tactical considerations.

With the first hand I'd overcall 1S at any scoring or vulnerability.
With the second there aren't enough quick tricks to justify the risk
at total points or IMP's. Trade the K+J for an A and game prospects
justify jumping in. At match points depriving the opponents of the
1H response is more important on what is likely to be a part score
hand and I might overcall 1S depending on the opponents since I
can't do worse than a zero. I wouldn't dream of overcalling 1NT.

Fred.

* _Competitive Bidding in Modern Bridge_, 1965, Fleet Publishing, p. 51

[P***@yahoo.com]

Post by Fred.

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Edgar Kaplan published* a simple metric called "trump value" for evaluating overcall suits: 1 point for each card over four in the suit plus 1 point
for each card touching or nearly touching 2 higher honors.
This is a rough estimate of the number of additional tricks the
suit will take if named as trump and also is a rough estimate
of the level at which an overcall in the suit becomes somewhat
risky.
On this metric KQT9 counts as 2 and should be safe for an overcall
at the 1-level while AQxx counts as 0 and should be quite risky.
Whether or not a hand should overcall at the level of risk depends
on partnership methods, style, and tactical considerations.
With the first hand I'd overcall 1S at any scoring or vulnerability.
With the second there aren't enough quick tricks to justify the risk
at total points or IMP's. Trade the K+J for an A and game prospects
justify jumping in. At match points depriving the opponents of the
1H response is more important on what is likely to be a part score
hand and I might overcall 1S depending on the opponents since I
can't do worse than a zero. I wouldn't dream of overcalling 1NT.
Fred.
* _Competitive Bidding in Modern Bridge_, 1965, Fleet Publishing, p. 51

Thanks, Fred. Very interesting -- I hadn't heard of the Kaplan evaluation system, and it clearly shows that KQT9 is better than AQxx. But it seems like the whole system for evaluating overcalls can't be defined by that. Surely a hand with 14 HCPs should count for more than a hand with 12 HCPs?

[Fred.]

Post by P***@yahoo.com

Post by Fred.

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Edgar Kaplan published* a simple metric called "trump value" for evaluating overcall suits: 1 point for each card over four in the suit plus 1 point
for each card touching or nearly touching 2 higher honors.
This is a rough estimate of the number of additional tricks the
suit will take if named as trump and also is a rough estimate
of the level at which an overcall in the suit becomes somewhat
risky.
On this metric KQT9 counts as 2 and should be safe for an overcall
at the 1-level while AQxx counts as 0 and should be quite risky.
Whether or not a hand should overcall at the level of risk depends
on partnership methods, style, and tactical considerations.
With the first hand I'd overcall 1S at any scoring or vulnerability.
With the second there aren't enough quick tricks to justify the risk
at total points or IMP's. Trade the K+J for an A and game prospects
justify jumping in. At match points depriving the opponents of the
1H response is more important on what is likely to be a part score
hand and I might overcall 1S depending on the opponents since I
can't do worse than a zero. I wouldn't dream of overcalling 1NT.
Fred.
* _Competitive Bidding in Modern Bridge_, 1965, Fleet Publishing, p. 51

Thanks, Fred. Very interesting -- I hadn't heard of the Kaplan evaluation system, and it clearly shows that KQT9 is better than AQxx. But it seems like the whole system for evaluating overcalls can't be defined by that. Surely a hand with 14 HCPs should count for more than a hand with 12 HCPs?

The measure is intended to evaluate risk related to trump quality,
not possible return. With as much as AQxx xx Axx Axxx you ignore
the poor trump quality and get into the auction.

For game to be a possibility after the opponents
have opened, controls are more important than HCP.

AT98 32 A32 A432 (12 HCP)

is far more likely to lead to a game than

KQT9 QJ3 QJ4 QJ43 (14 HCP).

Holding the latter, the opponents' HCP are entirely
aces and kings, excuse one jack.

Fred.

[[e-mail]]

Post by P***@yahoo.com

Post by Fred.

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Edgar Kaplan published* a simple metric called "trump value" for evaluating overcall suits: 1 point for each card over four in the suit plus 1 point
for each card touching or nearly touching 2 higher honors.
This is a rough estimate of the number of additional tricks the
suit will take if named as trump and also is a rough estimate
of the level at which an overcall in the suit becomes somewhat
risky.
On this metric KQT9 counts as 2 and should be safe for an overcall
at the 1-level while AQxx counts as 0 and should be quite risky.
Whether or not a hand should overcall at the level of risk depends
on partnership methods, style, and tactical considerations.
With the first hand I'd overcall 1S at any scoring or vulnerability.
With the second there aren't enough quick tricks to justify the risk
at total points or IMP's. Trade the K+J for an A and game prospects
justify jumping in. At match points depriving the opponents of the
1H response is more important on what is likely to be a part score
hand and I might overcall 1S depending on the opponents since I
can't do worse than a zero. I wouldn't dream of overcalling 1NT.
Fred.
* _Competitive Bidding in Modern Bridge_, 1965, Fleet Publishing, p. 51

Thanks, Fred. Very interesting -- I hadn't heard of the Kaplan evaluation system, and it clearly shows that KQT9 is better than AQxx. But it seems like the whole system for evaluating overcalls can't be defined by that. Surely a hand with 14 HCPs should count for more than a hand with 12 HCPs?

Kaplan's reasoning: If the opponents beat your contract by cashing aces and kings, it may not be a bad loss.

If they win secondary cards in the trumps suit, it is pure loss.

Carl

[p***@infi.net]

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76
and 75% of the respondents said they'd pass, with the others equally divided between 1S and 1N.
Is there an explanation for the Bridge Winners responses that I'm overlooking?

Poor suit for an overcall, and Lawrence specified no one vulnerable for his example.

[jogs]

On Friday, September 16, 2016 at 1:54:54 AM UTC-7,

Post by P***@yahoo.com
Another Bridge Winners poll by my partner, apparently indicates that 75% of the responders are reluctant to overcall with four-card suits.
S: KQT9
H: 42
D: AQ65
C: K54
Mike says that if RHO bids 1D, you should bid 1S.
S: AQ43
H: A9
D: K54
C: JT76

You're comparing apples and oranges.

Change the Bridge Winners' hand to

S: AQ43
H: 96
D: K54
C: AJT7

Now you would be comparing comparing red and green apples. The ace in the longer suit is worth much more.