Defensive slip-up, how could I have worked this out?

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

IMPS, game all:

North
AJT6
AJT4
KJ54
3

N E S W
1D P 1S 3C*
3S 4C 4S P
P 5C P P
X AP

*preemptive

I lead the SA, dummy comes down with:

84
K65
A987
J987

Partner encourages with the 9, and I play another spade to partners Q, declarer following.

Partner leads the two of diamonds, it goes 3, J, A.

Declarer plays the CJ from dummy, partner plays the king, covered by the ace. Obviously that was partners only club.

Declarer now plays the three of hearts towards dummy's king.

I had a think, and knew that declarer held seven clubs and two spades, and therefore four red cards. The most likely layout is either three hearts and one diamond, or three diamonds and one heart. The question is, do I go up with the ace or play low?

If declarer holds a singleton heart, I must go up with the ace and cash two winning diamnonds (partner is marked with the DQ). If declarer holds three hearts to the queen, I must play low, declarer then cannot avoid two heart losers. If declarer is 2-2 in D+H, it doesn't matter what I do.

After some thought, I went up with the ace (possibly influenced by looking a fool if I otherwise went to bed with it) and played a diamond. This was the wrong thing to do. Declarer held the following hand:

72
Q73
3
AQT6542

Going up with the ace blew a defensive trick, so we only got +200 instead of +500. It wasn't the disaster it could have been since NS cannot make a game, but it could (and should) have been better.

How do I work out at the time and with the information I had up until the critical decision, that the correct play is to play low on the heart?

[Pubkeybreaker]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
North
AJT6
AJT4
KJ54
3
N E S W
1D P 1S 3C*
3S 4C 4S P
P 5C P P
X AP
*preemptive
84
K65
A987
J987
Partner encourages with the 9, and I play another spade to partners Q, declarer following.
Partner leads the two of diamonds, it goes 3, J, A.

<snip>

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
How do I work out at the time and with the information I had up until the critical decision, that the correct play is to play low on the heart?

Your partner screwed up. His lead of the two of diamonds indicates
that he holds an odd number. (standard to lead 3rd even, low odd here)

[Ars Ivci]

Post by Pubkeybreaker

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
North
AJT6
AJT4
KJ54
3
N E S W
1D P 1S 3C*
3S 4C 4S P
P 5C P P
X AP
*preemptive
84
K65
A987
J987
Partner encourages with the 9, and I play another spade to partners Q, declarer following.
Partner leads the two of diamonds, it goes 3, J, A.

<snip>

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
How do I work out at the time and with the information I had up until the critical decision, that the correct play is to play low on the heart?

Your partner screwed up. His lead of the two of diamonds indicates
that he holds an odd number. (standard to lead 3rd even, low odd here)

The standard lead is 4th best. A better standard yet is having an
agreement on your leads. So, D2 shows either 3 or 4 diamonds with an
honor. Hence, declarer is marked with at least 2 hearts, making it safe
to duck in the first round.
t.

[a***@yahoo.co.uk]

Post by Ars Ivci

Post by Pubkeybreaker

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
North
AJT6
AJT4
KJ54
3
N E S W
1D P 1S 3C*
3S 4C 4S P
P 5C P P
X AP
*preemptive
84
K65
A987
J987
Partner encourages with the 9, and I play another spade to partners Q, declarer following.
Partner leads the two of diamonds, it goes 3, J, A.

<snip>

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
How do I work out at the time and with the information I had up until the critical decision, that the correct play is to play low on the heart?

Your partner screwed up. His lead of the two of diamonds indicates
that he holds an odd number. (standard to lead 3rd even, low odd here)

The standard lead is 4th best. A better standard yet is having an
agreement on your leads. So, D2 shows either 3 or 4 diamonds with an
honor. Hence, declarer is marked with at least 2 hearts, making it safe
to duck in the first round.
t.

Ah ha, yes, thanks. Partner cannot have have led the two from a doubleton, so must hold at least three diamonds. That means declarer cannot have more than two diamonds, so holds at least two hearts. That is the last critical bit I missed at the table.

This is where I seem to slip up a fair bit. At the point of a critical decision, I can process the information and get most of the inferences, but I occasionally miss one last bit that turns out to be vital in turning an apparent guess into a fully informed logical decision. I need to bridge that gap somehow.

[Ars Ivci]

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk

Post by Ars Ivci

Post by Pubkeybreaker

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
North
AJT6
AJT4
KJ54
3
N E S W
1D P 1S 3C*
3S 4C 4S P
P 5C P P
X AP
*preemptive
84
K65
A987
J987
Partner encourages with the 9, and I play another spade to partners Q, declarer following.
Partner leads the two of diamonds, it goes 3, J, A.

<snip>

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk
How do I work out at the time and with the information I had up until the critical decision, that the correct play is to play low on the heart?

(...)

Post by a***@yahoo.co.uk

Post by Ars Ivci
The standard lead is 4th best. A better standard yet is having an
agreement on your leads. So, D2 shows either 3 or 4 diamonds with an
honor. Hence, declarer is marked with at least 2 hearts, making it safe
to duck in the first round.
t.

Ah ha, yes, thanks. Partner cannot have have led the two from a doubleton, so must hold at least three diamonds. That means declarer cannot have more than two diamonds, so holds at least two hearts. That is the last critical bit I missed at the table.
This is where I seem to slip up a fair bit. At the point of a critical decision, I can process the information and get most of the inferences, but I occasionally miss one last bit that turns out to be vital in turning an apparent guess into a fully informed logical decision. I need to bridge that gap somehow.

For an interesting take on counting declarer's hand, have a look at
http://www.prismsignals.com/.

t.

[Jean Pierre Fontenille]

2D aces...