I thnk I misplayed . . .

[Dave Flower]

this hand:

Match points, E/W vu, dealer W

9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2

A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J

W N E S
1C pass 2H 3D
3H pass 4NT pass
5H pass 6H all pass

Opening lead C3

David Flower

[ais523]

Post by Dave Flower
Match points, E/W vu, dealer W
9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2
A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J
W N E S
1C pass 2H 3D
3H pass 4NT pass
5H pass 6H all pass
Opening lead C3

Those hands actually look like a terrible misfit. You have only two
entries to West's hand: the club entry is destroyed by the opening lead,
and the heart entry is in trumps and thus it'll be used up upon drawing
the second round of trumps. There's a possible further entry in spades,
but because you've given both East and West the 9 of spades it's going
to be hard to tell. Could you fix that?

Anyway, the opening lead is pretty worrying (with standard leads, it can
only be a singleton, meaning that only one club trick is possible unless
W can somehow get the lead while S is out of trumps). If there isn't an
additional entry to W's hand, the only possible path to twelve tricks
would be 1 club, 6 hearts, 5 spades. The best combination of chances
appears to be to win trick 1 anywhere, King of Hearts, Ace of Spades,
Ace of Hearts; if South shows out then start running the clubs until
North ruffs (discarding first diamonds and then, if it gets that far,
spades), and then overruff in East's hand; if neither player shows out
then take the spade finesse then drop the Jack of Hearts and run your
heart and spade tricks; if North shows out it's probably hopeless.
(The spade finesse is quite likely to work here, because South showed
length in diamonds, and it's clearly a better chance than playing for
spades 3:3.)

That strategy seems to work for any trump break except those where South
has 4+ trumps, but requires the spade finesse to be on if trumps split
3:2. I can't immediately see a way to do better than that.

(On a side note, I disapprove of West supporting hearts so readily when
the clubs are that good; 6C would have been laydown, making 7 clubs, 3
hearts, 3 spades, and the only potential trick for the defence being
the Ace of Diamonds at trick 1. It's normally really bad for trumps to
be a suit in which the weaker hand is short and has an entry, because
it typically prevents you being able to draw trumps, so West's Ace of
Hearts should have lead West to try hard to find a trump suit other
than hearts. Unfortunately, the 3D intervention was likely at too high
a level to allow for a scientific auction; now I wonder whether South
would have overcalled only 2D if they didn't know that East had a
game-forcing hand, in which case there might have been space for West
to establish just how good the clubs were. Even in the actual auction,
I might have considered 5C with West's hand, and would definitely bid 4C
if it were defined as forcing in the system in use. West should be
happy to play in clubs even if East has a void.)

[Dave Flower]

Post by ais523

Post by Dave Flower
Match points, E/W vu, dealer W
9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2
A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J
W N E S
1C pass 2H 3D
3H pass 4NT pass
5H pass 6H all pass
Opening lead C3

Those hands actually look like a terrible misfit. You have only two
entries to West's hand: the club entry is destroyed by the opening lead,
and the heart entry is in trumps and thus it'll be used up upon drawing
the second round of trumps. There's a possible further entry in spades,
but because you've given both East and West the 9 of spades it's going
to be hard to tell. Could you fix that?
Anyway, the opening lead is pretty worrying (with standard leads, it can
only be a singleton, meaning that only one club trick is possible unless
W can somehow get the lead while S is out of trumps). If there isn't an
additional entry to W's hand, the only possible path to twelve tricks
would be 1 club, 6 hearts, 5 spades. The best combination of chances
appears to be to win trick 1 anywhere, King of Hearts, Ace of Spades,
Ace of Hearts; if South shows out then start running the clubs until
North ruffs (discarding first diamonds and then, if it gets that far,
spades), and then overruff in East's hand; if neither player shows out
then take the spade finesse then drop the Jack of Hearts and run your
heart and spade tricks; if North shows out it's probably hopeless.
(The spade finesse is quite likely to work here, because South showed
length in diamonds, and it's clearly a better chance than playing for
spades 3:3.)
That strategy seems to work for any trump break except those where South
has 4+ trumps, but requires the spade finesse to be on if trumps split
3:2. I can't immediately see a way to do better than that.

It doesn't work if LHO holds 3 trumps, and the SJ doesn't drop

Dave Flower

Post by ais523
(On a side note, I disapprove of West supporting hearts so readily when
the clubs are that good; 6C would have been laydown, making 7 clubs, 3
hearts, 3 spades, and the only potential trick for the defence being
the Ace of Diamonds at trick 1. It's normally really bad for trumps to
be a suit in which the weaker hand is short and has an entry, because
it typically prevents you being able to draw trumps, so West's Ace of
Hearts should have lead West to try hard to find a trump suit other
than hearts. Unfortunately, the 3D intervention was likely at too high
a level to allow for a scientific auction; now I wonder whether South
would have overcalled only 2D if they didn't know that East had a
game-forcing hand, in which case there might have been space for West
to establish just how good the clubs were. Even in the actual auction,
I might have considered 5C with West's hand, and would definitely bid 4C
if it were defined as forcing in the system in use. West should be
happy to play in clubs even if East has a void.)
--
ais523

[KWSchneider]

Two S9.
CA then CK dumping DT. When LHO ruffs in and leads DA, ruff in hand, lead HK, then to HA (if HJ falls, great, clubs are good). Otherwise ruff diamond, pull last trump, run hearts, then spades. If both majors split 4-2 with J in the long hand, you should be in clubs...

[KWSchneider]

Meant to say if both majors split 4-x with J in long hand...
Also, I think 4D is the bid, not 3H.

[KWSchneider]

I’ll say what I intended correctly yet. After ruffing in hand on trick 3, it is important to lead high heart first in case trumps split 3-2 or North has 4 trumps. Location of HJ is irrelevant).

[Charles Brenner]

Post by Dave Flower
Match points, E/W vu, dealer W
9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2
A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J
W N E S
1C pass 2H 3D
3H pass 4NT pass
5H pass 6H all pass
Opening lead C3
David Flower

It can't be wrong to discard the diamond loser on a high club; the question is when. Trick 2 is better if a defender (West no doubt but it doesn't matter) has a singleton club and 3 trumps. Discarding after two trumps gains against a singleton club with 2 trumps, which is less likely. So the trick 2 club play seems obvious assuming a singleton club. And it doesn't cost if there's no singleton club, and it's also as good as anything for the uptrick if the majors behave.

Seems too obvious. Is the problem what to do if clubs divide?

[ais523]

[snip]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Dave Flower
9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2
A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J

[snip]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Dave Flower
Opening lead C3

[snip]

Post by Charles Brenner
Seems too obvious. Is the problem what to do if clubs divide?

They can't, unless the opening lead is a falsecard or the opponents are
using a very unusual lead structure. 3 is the opening leader's lowest
club (we know that because we have the 2), and the only situations in
which you lead your lowest card are "low under an honour" (impossible
because we have all five club honours), when you're underleading in an
attempt to hit your partner's hand (again impossible, the leader has no
honours so their highest card would do just as well and be informative),
or when you have a singleton. So the opening leader has a singleton, and
the other defender has four clubs.

If you're worried about the falsecard (or about a nonstandard lead
system - it strikes me that it probably makes sense to have a different
lead system against slams, but I rarely see this happen in practice and
don't currently do it myself), you could ask the opponents about their
leading tendencies against slams.

[Charles Brenner]

Post by ais523
[snip]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Dave Flower
9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2
A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J

[snip]

Post by Charles Brenner

Post by Dave Flower
Opening lead C3

[snip]

Post by Charles Brenner
Seems too obvious. Is the problem what to do if clubs divide?

They can't, unless the opening lead is a falsecard or the opponents are
using a very unusual lead structure. 3 is the opening leader's lowest
club (we know that because we have the 2), and the only situations in
which you lead your lowest card are "low under an honour" (impossible
because we have all five club honours), when you're underleading in an
attempt to hit your partner's hand (again impossible, the leader has no
honours so their highest card would do just as well and be informative),
or when you have a singleton. So the opening leader has a singleton, and
the other defender has four clubs.
If you're worried about the falsecard (or about a nonstandard lead
system - it strikes me that it probably makes sense to have a different
lead system against slams, but I rarely see this happen in practice and
don't currently do it myself), you could ask the opponents about their
leading tendencies against slams.
--
ais523

Being "worried about the falsecard" wasn't my point. There's no need to anticipate how the clubs lie -- you'll play a second club even supposing there's a singleton and if it turns out no singleton, that's soon enough to decide what to do next.

[Player]

Post by Dave Flower
Match points, E/W vu, dealer W
9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2
A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J
W N E S
1C pass 2H 3D
3H pass 4NT pass
5H pass 6H all pass
Opening lead C3
David Flower

What on earth is 2H? Did you mistype?

[Lorne]

Post by Dave Flower
Match points, E/W vu, dealer W
9 6
A 7
5 3
A K Q 10 9 6 2
A K Q 10 9
K Q 10 9 4 2
10
J
W N E S
1C pass 2H 3D
3H pass 4NT pass
5H pass 6H all pass
Opening lead C3
David Flower

I would play a second club dicscarding a D. If S ruffs from 3 trumps
the contract is cold, and if he ruffs from 4 trumps you have saved a
trump loser and just need to drop the spade J.