Discussion:
Two way finesse
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Dave Flower
2019-07-24 11:43:01 UTC
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IMPs, NV v. VUL, dealer E

9 8 3
6 4
K 10 6
K 10 9 6 5

A J 10 6 5 4
A 8
A J 9 5 2
void

pass 1S 2C 2S
pass 3D pass 4S
pass 6S all pass

Opening lead CA.

South ruffs, cashes SA (W playing K), a low spade to the 8, (East discards a small club), west winning and returning a low heart.
Spade to dummy (another low club from W)
CK, East discards a low diamond, S the H8

Take it from there

Dave Flower
dfm
2019-07-24 14:53:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Flower
IMPs, NV v. VUL, dealer E
9 8 3
6 4
K 10 6
K 10 9 6 5
A J 10 6 5 4
A 8
A J 9 5 2
void
pass 1S 2C 2S
pass 3D pass 4S
pass 6S all pass
Opening lead CA.
South ruffs, cashes SA (W playing K), a low spade to the 8, (East discards a small club), west winning and returning a low heart.
Spade to dummy (another low club from W)
CK, East discards a low diamond, S the H8
Take it from there
Dave Flower
I presume it was West, not East, who discarded the club at trick two.

The spades are 1-3. The clubs are 7-1. That leaves West with 5 red cards and East with 9. I ruff dummy's remaining heart. If West shows out, the diamonds are 4-1 and I play West for the DQ. If not, there are a lot more spaces in East's hand, so I play East for the DQ.
Charles Brenner
2019-07-24 21:38:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by dfm
Post by Dave Flower
IMPs, NV v. VUL, dealer E
9 8 3
6 4
K 10 6
K 10 9 6 5
A J 10 6 5 4
A 8
A J 9 5 2
void
pass 1S 2C 2S
pass 3D pass 4S
pass 6S all pass
Opening lead CA.
South ruffs, cashes SA (W playing K), a low spade to the 8, (East discards a small club), west winning and returning a low heart.
Spade to dummy (another low club from W)
CK, East discards a low diamond, S the H8
Take it from there
Dave Flower
I presume it was West, not East, who discarded the club at trick two.
The spades are 1-3. The clubs are 7-1. That leaves West with 5 red cards and East with 9.
Furthermore given the small heart lead from East, West no doubt had at least 3 hearts: the small one already played and two honors from East's failure to lead from an honor sequence. Hence East has the majority of the diamonds.

That's enough information for me to place the diamond Queen. I'm more worried about East having all the diamonds than all the hearts. Therefore instead of divulging my distribution I'd ruff a club to hand, play a lot of trumps, and maybe East will accidentally discard a diamond from Qxxxx.
Dave Flower
2019-07-25 07:15:26 UTC
Permalink
Nobody seems to have noticed that East discarded a diamond on the CK; this is the nub of the problem

Dave Flower
Post by Dave Flower
IMPs, NV v. VUL, dealer E
9 8 3
6 4
K 10 6
K 10 9 6 5
A J 10 6 5 4
A 8
A J 9 5 2
void
pass 1S 2C 2S
pass 3D pass 4S
pass 6S all pass
Opening lead CA.
South ruffs, cashes SA (W playing K), a low spade to the 8, (East discards a small club), west winning and returning a low heart.
Spade to dummy (another low club from W)
CK, East discards a low diamond, S the H8
Take it from there
Dave Flower
Charles Brenner
2019-07-25 14:57:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Flower
Nobody seems to have noticed that East discarded a diamond on the CK; this is the nub of the problem
Dave Flower
Post by Dave Flower
IMPs, NV v. VUL, dealer E
9 8 3
6 4
K 10 6
K 10 9 6 5
A J 10 6 5 4
A 8
A J 9 5 2
void
pass 1S 2C 2S
pass 3D pass 4S
pass 6S all pass
Opening lead CA.
South ruffs, cashes SA (W playing K), a low spade to the 8, (East discards a small club), west winning and returning a low heart.
Spade to dummy (another low club from W)
CK, East discards a low diamond, S the H8
Take it from there
Dave Flower
You're right. In addition I overlooked South's diamond bid. That doesn't matter to my analysis but if East similarly might have overlooked the bidding or inferences from it, that would be relevant to the significance - surely a psychological question at least in part - of East's diamond discard. Can you comment on the players and the level of the game?
Dave Flower
2019-07-25 15:10:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Brenner
Post by Dave Flower
Nobody seems to have noticed that East discarded a diamond on the CK; this is the nub of the problem
Dave Flower
Post by Dave Flower
IMPs, NV v. VUL, dealer E
9 8 3
6 4
K 10 6
K 10 9 6 5
A J 10 6 5 4
A 8
A J 9 5 2
void
pass 1S 2C 2S
pass 3D pass 4S
pass 6S all pass
Opening lead CA.
South ruffs, cashes SA (W playing K), a low spade to the 8, (East discards a small club), west winning and returning a low heart.
Spade to dummy (another low club from W)
CK, East discards a low diamond, S the H8
Take it from there
Dave Flower
You're right. In addition I overlooked South's diamond bid. That doesn't matter to my analysis but if East similarly might have overlooked the bidding or inferences from it, that would be relevant to the significance - surely a psychological question at least in part - of East's diamond discard. Can you comment on the players and the level of the game?
Opponents are better than average club players

Dave Flower
Charles Brenner
2019-07-26 02:57:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Flower
Post by Charles Brenner
Post by Dave Flower
Nobody seems to have noticed that East discarded a diamond on the CK; this is the nub of the problem
Dave Flower
Post by Dave Flower
IMPs, NV v. VUL, dealer E
9 8 3
6 4
K 10 6
K 10 9 6 5
A J 10 6 5 4
A 8
A J 9 5 2
void
pass 1S 2C 2S
pass 3D pass 4S
pass 6S all pass
Opening lead CA.
South ruffs, cashes SA (W playing K), a low spade to the 8, (East discards a small club), west winning and returning a low heart.
Spade to dummy (another low club from W)
CK, East discards a low diamond, S the H8
Take it from there
Dave Flower
You're right. In addition I overlooked South's diamond bid. That doesn't matter to my analysis but if East similarly might have overlooked the bidding or inferences from it, that would be relevant to the significance - surely a psychological question at least in part - of East's diamond discard. Can you comment on the players and the level of the game?
Opponents are better than average club players
Dave Flower
Then I agree with dfm - ruff a heart off of dummy.

If LHO follows small I assume LHO began with at least four hearts hence at most a singleton diamond in which case diamond to the King then finesse through East will work.

If LHO follows with the 10 or higher then I hope I noticed and remember the exact heart spots that were played. In particular I'd expect that RHO's heart lead to comport with their nominal methods and that a merely "above average club player" doesn't playfully toss the hK from original KJxx (even though it's obviously cost-free to do so). All else equal (if hearts played were a blur) I'd lean toward LHO being 1-3-2-7. If convinced of that then I'd further place Qx with LHO.
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